Economy

  • AAPL

    213.43 (+0.29%)

  • BARC-LN

    1205.7 (-1.46%)

  • NKE

    94.05 (+0.39%)

  • CVX

    152.67 (-1.00%)

  • CRM

    230.27 (-2.34%)

  • INTC

    30.5 (-0.87%)

  • DIS

    100.16 (-0.67%)

  • DOW

    55.79 (-0.82%)

James Kirkup James Kirkup

Only proper welfare reform can bring true ‘national renewal’

Rachel Reeves’ Spending Review does more than set budgets. It exposes a contradiction at the heart of Labour’s approach to government: a party that wants to rebuild the state won’t take the hard decisions needed to make that possible. The review was more painful that it needed to be for Labour, because Labour MPs have shied away from serious welfare reform. Two mistaken ideas dominate much of the progressive conversation about the public finances. The first is that the state can go on doing more and spending more forever, with no real constraint. The second is that all talk of welfare reform is right-wing cruelty. Unless and until Labour challenges

Spotlight

Featured economics news and data.

Ross Clark Ross Clark

No, Ed Miliband: zonal pricing won’t cut energy bills

Is Ed Miliband going to announce a move towards a zonal electricity market, where wholesale prices would vary between regions of Britain? It would appear to be on cards following the Energy and Climate Secretary’s interview on the Today programme in which he said he was considering the idea. Miliband’s apparent support for the plan follows intense lobbying by Greg Jackson, CEO of Octopus Energy as well as support from the National Energy System Operator (NESO), the new government-owned company which oversees the grid. However, zonal pricing is bitterly opposed by others in the energy industry, including Chris O’Shea, the generously-moustached CEO of Centrica, and Dale Vince, CEO of Electrocity

Wednesday

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

Inflation falls close to target, but could interest rate cuts be delayed?

The UK inflation rate has slowed to 2.3 per cent on the year to April, down from 3.2 per cent in March. This marks the lowest headline inflation rate in almost three years, before the unwinding of lockdowns and release of pent-up demand sent prices spiralling. The Spectator‘s Data Hub outlines the inflation saga below: April’s slowdown is largely thanks to Ofgem’s reduction to the energy price cap, as higher energy costs fell out of the data. The lower cap saw bills reduce by around 12 per cent: a reduction of £238 from the average household’s yearly bill. According to the Office for National Statistics, the ‘prices of electricity, gas

Tuesday

James Heale James Heale

Is there finally good news for the government?

11 min listen

The IMF has upgraded the 2024 economic forecast for the UK. What does this mean for the Government and could more good news follow this week? And, with speeches on tax, benefit crackdowns and tackling anti-semitism, what should we make of all this political activity? Will we see the return of ‘the hot lectern guy’? Kate Andrews and James Heale join Katy Balls to discuss. Produced by Patrick Gibbons

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

UK growth is creeping up – but tough decisions still lie ahead

Today the International Monetary Fund has upgraded its growth forecasts for the UK: from 0.5 per cent this year to 0.7 per cent, followed by a 1.5 per cent rise in 2025 (unchanged from its previous update). These forecasts still sit slightly below the Office for Budget Responsibility’s most recent predictions – but only just. The IMF’s latest forecasts come less than two weeks after the UK economy defied predictions and grew by 0.6 per cent in the first quarter of the year, exceeding practically all expectations and confirming that recession ended back in 2023. As I noted earlier in the month, when the provisional GDP figures were announced, the

Kristian Niemietz

The trouble with Labour’s new towns plan

Since last October, when Keir Starmer declared that he was a ‘Yimby’ – a ‘yes in my back yard’ – Labour has tried to position itself as the pro-housing party. We are now finally getting a glimpse of what this might look like in practice.   Deputy leader Angela Rayner has promised a revitalisation of the postwar ‘New Towns’ programme, which, in the quarter-century from 1946 to 1970, delivered hundreds of thousands of new homes.   New Towns are not a panacea This certainly signals the right ambitions, and if done in the right way, New Towns could indeed make a major contribution to solving Britain’s housing crisis. But they are not

Monday

Ross Clark Ross Clark

Could Rightmove make the wrong move?

Banks have been cutting fixed mortgage rates, leading to hopes among some people that the housing market – which has been pretty flat so far this year – will soon respond positively. While prices and sale volumes haven’t been going anywhere, last month the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors reported that enquiries from buyers have risen to their highest level in two years. The company will have to watch its back for app developers out to steal its business But do short sellers tell a different story? Property website Rightmove, according to a list maintained by the Financial Conduct Authority, is currently the fifth most-shorted stock on the FTSE all-share

Friday

James Heale James Heale

Can Hunt answer the Reagan question?

11 min listen

Ronald Reagan famously asked voters: ‘are you better off than you were four years ago?’ At the next election, the Tories face a public thinking over the last fourteen years. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt gave a speech today defending the UK’s record tax levels and attacking Labour’s economic plans. But who should we trust more on tax? Fraser Nelson and James Heale join Katy Balls to discuss. Produced by Megan McElroy and Patrick Gibbons.

Ross Clark Ross Clark

Hunt’s tax attack on Labour is sure to backfire

It should come as no surprise that Jeremy Hunt has signalled in a speech this morning that  he will try to make taxation a central theme of the coming election campaign. The tactic has certainly worked in the past. In 1992, fears that Neil Kinnock and his shadow chancellor John Smith would jack up taxes played a big role in a campaign from which John Major’s Conservatives – unexpectedly in many people’s eyes – emerged triumphantly. Five years later, Blair and Brown did not make the mistake of being cast as the high-tax alternative: they promised not to raise any income tax rate, or VAT. The Conservatives have a very

Thursday

Martin Vander Weyer Martin Vander Weyer

Can Starmer and Reeves add some fizz to the economy?

If the 0.6 per cent first-quarter GDP uplift reported by the Office for National Statistics is sustained for the rest of this year, Rishi Sunak will be able to claim – as he waves goodbye – that he and Jeremy Hunt have succeeded against their naysayers in dragging the UK economy from pandemic depths back to the level of ‘trend growth’, around 2.5 per cent per annum, that used to be thought of as normal. That’s spookily in line (as is the path of inflation) with Ken Clarke’s achievement as Tory chancellor in 1996 ahead of the election that swept Blair and Brown to power the following May. How lucky

Tuesday

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

Brits won’t stop getting pay rises

Are interest rates still heading ‘downwards’ as the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said last week? Homeowners across the country will be hoping so as average two-year mortgages are again approaching 6 per cent. But the latest figures on the UK job market may dampen hopes of a cut coming soon. Britons have continued to receive above inflation pay rises. Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics show that – against expectations – pay growth in cash terms is at 5.7 per cent. Even when you factor in inflation, pay is still going up and has now hit 1.7 per cent – the highest in two years.

Saturday

Matthew Lynn

The FTSE 100 hits a new high – but don’t celebrate yet

Another day, another all time high. As the week closed, the FTSE 100 index hit 8,433 — the highest level it has ever reached — and this is turning into a regular occurrence. The FTSE has now hit 11 all-time-highs over the last month, and it is close to equalling the record set way back in 1984 of 12 all-time-highs within a single four-week period. Add in a mega-bid and better than expected growth figures and it may look as if the UK is booming again. Well, perhaps. In reality, however, all that is happening is that the FTSE 100 is finally recovering from two decades of miserable under-performance —

Friday

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

The UK leaves recession – but is it too late for the Tories?

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed this morning that the UK confined its technical recession to 2023. The economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the first three months of the year, thanks in large part to stronger-than-expected growth in March, which reached 0.4 per cent. Both numbers were larger than expected (the consensus was for 0.4 per cent and 0.1 per cent respectively), as growth figures for February were also revised upwards, from 0.1 per cent to 0.2 per cent. Services output was the ‘largest contributor’ to the economic bounceback, growing at 0.7 per cent in the first three months of the year. Transportation and storage were the ‘largest positive

Thursday

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

Andrew Bailey paves the way for a summer interest rate cut

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has voted to hold interest rates for the sixth time in a row. Members of the MPC voted 7 – 2 to maintain the base rate at 5.25 per cent – with two members voting to cut rates by 0.25 percentage points. This decision will come as no surprise to the markets, which had already factored in a rate hold. The Bank made clear in March that key indicators – including the state of the UK labour market and the risk of inflation rising again – would influence its decision, none of which dramatically changed in the last seven weeks. The Committee repeats from previous

Andrew Lilico

Why the Bank of England must cut interest rates

As the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announces its interest rate decision today it has the chance to reverse the damage caused by its interest rate hikes. Rates have been fixed at 5.25 per cent since last August and the Bank has stubbornly refused to cut them. We’re all paying the price. Those final rate rises were clearly an error The truth is that inflation is lower and has fallen much faster than the Bank used as its justification for raising rates. In August, the Bank’s model indicated that, even with interest rates raised to 5.25 per cent, inflation would be 5 per cent last year. It was

Martin Vander Weyer Martin Vander Weyer

How to bottle Britishness

The US crackdown on trade finance for Russia from international banks – designed to impede imports needed for the continuing assault on Ukraine – is biting hard, reports the FT, quoting an investor who thinks ‘the logical endpoint of this is turning Russia into Iran’. Quite right too: sanctions like these are a vital non-military way to hobble Vladimir Putin’s campaign. But war and finance intersect in many different ways. Consider also the fate of 400 western-owned commercial aircraft that were leased to Russian airlines before the invasion in February 2022. Now stuck in Russia or its satellites, unmaintained to western standards and unfit to fly back into our airspace,

Tuesday

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

Can Labour or the Tories fix the economy?

It’s all but certain that the UK’s exit from recession will be confirmed at the end of this week. Preliminary Q1 data, released on Friday, is expected to how slow and steady growth in the first three months of the year. It is also very likely that inflation will return to the government target of 2 per cent this month, due to Ofgem’s changes to the energy price cap last month and higher energy costs falling out of the data. The return to target may not last – which is one of the reasons hopes for a spring rate cut have been dashed. But all this will help cushion what

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Jeremy Hunt snaps at Rachel Reeves over National Insurance

Rachel Reeves may have been getting attention for her accusation that the government is ‘gaslighting’ the public over the state of the economy, but this afternoon she ended up being accused of spreading fake news. The ‘gaslighting’ line came from a speech in the City of London this morning, after which Reeves then popped up at Treasury questions in the House of Commons. She asked a question that both she and Labour leader Keir Starmer have been repeating for weeks now, about the Conservatives’ ambition to abolish national insurance. Labour has badged this as a £46 billion unfunded plan, though, as ever, it is worth pointing out that this is

Euan McColm

Will John Swinney end the SNP’s war on business?

Accepting the leadership of the SNP on Monday, John Swinney said his political priority as Scotland’s seventh First Minister would be the eradication of child poverty. If he is sincere in his desire to achieve this ambition, then Scotland’s economic growth – just 0.2 per cent last year – needs be a great deal better. As soon as Swinney gets his feet under the First Ministerial desk, he must throw open his doors to Scotland’s business leaders and show them the love his party has been withholding for the last decade. Shortly after the SNP won its first Scottish parliamentary election in 2007, new First Minister Alex Salmond fired off

James Kirkup James Kirkup

What Rishi Sunak can learn from Gordon Brown’s golden mistake

Gordon Brown is a historian by education, so he might just appreciate the fickleness of posterity. Over a decade at the Treasury from 1997 to 2007, he did many things that he might believe should be widely remembered. Yet few, if any, of his decisions live as clearly in memory as ‘Gordon Brown sold the gold’. Brown sold the gold. He raided pensions. He put 75p on pensions Exactly 25 years ago, Brown’s Treasury stunned the gold markets by starting to sell of much of the UK’s gold reserves. In total, 395 tonnes of gold were sold over three years, yielding $3.5 billion (£2.8 billion) in revenues. That’s a big number, but

Thursday

Sam Dumitriu

Why Britain is building the world’s most expensive nuclear plant

For over 20 years, Britain effectively gave up on building new nuclear power stations. But that’s changed now Hinkley Point C in Somerset is under construction. When completed it will provide around 7 per cent of the UK’s electricity. Hinkley Point C is set to be the most expensive nuclear power station ever built. In fact, it is more than four times more expensive on a pound-for-megawatt basis than the average nuclear power plant built in South Korea. Even Flamanville 3, a French plant that uses the same reactor (EPR-1750) and built by the same company (EDF), is set to cost at least 25 per cent less. Why has Hinkley Point C

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

Will Britain ever escape the low growth trap?

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) latest report, published this morning, downgrades Britain’s growth prospects this year: from 0.7 per cent (forecast in November last year) to 0.4 per cent. Based on the OECD’s Economic Outlook, Britain and Germany risk experiencing the least growth amongst advanced economies, with Germany coming last this year (with 0.2 per cent growth) and the UK coming last next year (with 1 per cent growth). In response to this morning’s downgrade, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said that the ‘forecast is not particularly surprising given our priority for the last year has been to tackle inflation with higher interest rates’. This is a point