Money

Ross Clark

Is it any surprise junior doctors want more money?

If the government was deliberately trying to encourage union militancy, it could not be making a better job of it. It is reported that junior doctors – or ‘resident doctors’ as we are now supposed to call them for fear of implying that they might be less qualified than consultants who have been doing their jobs for 40 years – could be in line for a pay rise of five per cent this year. This would be on top of the 22 per cent they were awarded last year. Meanwhile, nurses, who had a pay rise of 5.5 per cent last year, appear to be on course for a rise of no

Is Starmer’s Trump trade deal the win he thinks it is?

Keir Starmer says it is a ‘fantastic, historic’ day after signing a trade deal with the United States, but is the agreement really something to celebrate? Ten per cent tariffs, announced last month, still apply to most UK goods entering the US The government is no doubt cock-a-hoop to be the first country to get a trade deal with President Donald Trump over the line, and there are a few wins: tariffs will come down for cars, steel, and potentially for pharmaceuticals, exempting UK exporters from the worst of the tariffs imposed on the oddly-named ‘Liberation Day’. But while, despite the dire warnings of some, we won’t be seeing chlorinated

Michael Simmons

Why Britain is cutting interest rates – and the US isn’t

Interest rates have been cut to 4.25 per cent. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by five to four for what will be the fourth rate reduction since August. The decision breaks with the direction of the US Federal Reserve, which held rates yesterday after refusing to bow to pressure from President Donald Trump who wants to see rates cut. Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, said America’s economy was ‘highly uncertain’ making it difficult to push ahead with a rate reduction. The government will hope that a trade deal will free Britain from the worst effects of the tariff war Back home, analysts are now anticipating the

Michael Simmons

What would a US trade deal mean for the UK?

Later today, Donald Trump is reportedly set to unveil a trade deal with the UK. He’ll make the announcement alongside ‘a big and highly respected country’ which is said to be Britain. If the reports are true then it would make the UK the first country to secure a deal since Trump’s tariff turmoil began.  The announcement will come at 3 p.m. UK time and could be worth billions in what would be an unarguable win for Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer.  Britain has already been somewhat shielded from the president’s wrath (and tariffs) because our trade in goods with the Americans is pretty much balanced (roughly £59 billion each way).

Michael Simmons

Starmer can’t afford a winter fuel U-turn

Keir Starmer has ruled out a U-turn on the government’s decision to cut the winter fuel payment, with the Prime Minister’s spokesman insisting there ‘will not be a change to the government’s policy’. This came after a report in the Guardian suggesting No.10 was considering softening the £1.4 billion cut, possibly by raising the threshold that defines who qualifies as poor enough to receive it. We can’t keep living in a state totally consumed by propping up its welfare system That a U-turn was even floated reflects two pressures: disquiet among Labour’s backbenchers, and the electoral warning shot fired by Reform UK in last Thursday’s local elections and by-election. In Runcorn, where

Ross Clark

Wes Streeting won’t end the 8am GP appointment scramble

You can say it for Wes Streeting: he doesn’t hang about. Reacting to the heavy loss of council seats in last week’s elections, he is proffering £102 million of money for extra GPs’ appointments – hopefully to end what has been termed the “8am scramble”: a kind of Hunger Games which NHS patients have to go through in order to be seen. The Health Secretary has been pointed in trying to attribute this funding boost to the unpopular rise in employers’ national insurance contributions The Health Secretary has been pointed in trying to attribute this funding boost to the very unpopular rise in employers’ national insurance contributions in last autumn’s

The Motability scheme needs to be put into reverse

Keir Starmer’s government has taken some important first steps to bring the welfare budget under control. But expenditure on disability and incapacity benefits is still set to increase to almost £100 billion by the end of the decade, so more changes are needed. Every aspect of the welfare system must be examined to see if it is actually helping those it was designed to assist. The Motability scheme should be Starmer’s next target. Britain cannot afford a gold-plated scheme providing a subsidised car to many who simply do not need one Introduced in 1977, Motability was set up with admirable intentions: to provide vehicles, scooters and powered wheelchairs to disabled

James Kirkup

Nigel Farage’s left-wing turn looks like a triumph

Nigel Farage declared earlier this year that ‘economics might be bigger than immigration for us at the next election’. Most people at Westminster didn’t take him particularly seriously. After all, Reform UK is all about immigration, right? Westminster didn’t take Farage seriously. After all, Reform UK is all about immigration, right? When Farage based his local election campaign on an overt pitch to working-class Labour voters by talking about trade unions and reindustrialisation, some parts of the political village were still dismissive. How could a Thatcherite public schoolboy and former City trader ever sell left-wing economics to the electorate? The results of those elections, and the by-election in Runcorn, mean that Reform’s economic

Michael Simmons

Can Rachel Reeves woo Trump’s team – without alienating the EU?

The government is on a charm offensive in Washington. Tonight, Britain’s ambassador to the US, Lord Mandelson, will host officials from Donald Trump’s government and American business figures at the British embassy. Tomorrow, the Chancellor will meet her counterpart, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Rachel Reeves is looking to permanently end the punishing 25 per cent tariff on British cars and 10 per levy on other exports. Reeves has given an interview to one of Trump’s favourite channels, Newsmax, in which she was asked about her upcoming meeting with Bessent. In response, Reeves said she believed ‘there was a deal to be done’ and that both Keir Starmer’s and Trump’s governments

Ross Clark

No, Ed Miliband: zonal pricing won’t cut energy bills

Is Ed Miliband going to announce a move towards a zonal electricity market, where wholesale prices would vary between regions of Britain? It would appear to be on cards following the Energy and Climate Secretary’s interview on the Today programme in which he said he was considering the idea. Miliband’s apparent support for the plan follows intense lobbying by Greg Jackson, CEO of Octopus Energy as well as support from the National Energy System Operator (NESO), the new government-owned company which oversees the grid. However, zonal pricing is bitterly opposed by others in the energy industry, including Chris O’Shea, the generously-moustached CEO of Centrica, and Dale Vince, CEO of Electrocity

Michael Simmons

Britain’s borrowing is spiralling out of control

Britain borrowed nearly £152 billion in the financial year to March – almost £21 billion more than at the same point in the last financial year, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The latest public finance figures reveal that borrowing in March was the third highest since records began in 1993. Crucially, it’s also nearly £15 billion more than what the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had expected for this point in the financial year. The £9.9 billion headroom Rachel Reeves left herself at the Spring Statement already looks to be in serious doubt. The current budget deficit, which is borrowing to fund day-to-day spending and the metric

Ross Clark

Is Britain really going to get a trade deal with the US?

Donald Trump loves Britain and loves the King; therefore we can expect a trade deal. That is the gist of J.D. Vance’s interview with UnHerd. Whether that means anything in practice is another matter. Evidently, the President’s love and affection was not enough to spare us from a 10 per cent tariff on exports to the US (and 25 per cent for cars). While Trump changed his mind last week and delayed most tariffs for 90 days there was no delay to the introduction of the 10 per cent tariffs, which will apply to all countries. All that happened as a result of last Thursday’s pullback was that Britain lost

Michael Simmons

China is hitting back with even more tariffs

China has retaliated against Donald Trump by raising duties on all American imports to 125 per cent from 84 per cent, declaring that it has no interest in responding further to what it calls a ‘joke’ policy. The higher rate will come into force from tomorrow. The announcement comes after the White House’s clarification that tariffs on Chinese exports have climbed to 145 per cent this year – a move China’s commerce ministry described as ‘economically meaningless’ and a tool for ‘bullying and coercion’. The world’s two largest economies exchange goods worth around $700 billion annually. Beijing has made it clear that it considers American goods effectively unmarketable within its

The EU is making a big mistake by retaliating against Trump

A Harley-Davidson will cost you a little more in France; Florida orange juice will be more expensive in Germany and American soybeans will go up in price everywhere across Europe. The European Union has decided to start taking the fight back to President Trump with a round of retaliatory tariffs. The trouble is, it is making a big mistake. Sure, we can all understand the desire to stand up to what it sees as bullying. But it is not going to win this battle.  In the wake of President Trump’s decision to impose a 20 per cent tariff on everything the EU sells in the United States, some form of

The hidden logic behind Trump’s market meltdown

Donald Trump’s announcement of huge levies on all the US’s major trading partners has triggered a global stock market meltdown, which may soon be followed by a full-blown recession. Almost no mainstream economist, and certainly none who believes in free markets and free trade, has a good thing to say about Trump’s tariffs. Yet there is a hidden logic behind the policy. It is not as completely brainless as it might appear. In fact, there are six reasons why the tariffs could make sense.  First, they may well be an effective battering ram for taking down tariff and trade barriers globally. No one seriously disputes that the American market is

Is the worst of the market crash over?

The FTSE-100 is up by a couple of hundred points. Germany’s DAX has added 400 points, and in Tokyo the Nikkei 225 rose by 6 per cent overnight. After the wild trading ever since President Trump announced the imposition of huge tariffs on all of America’s major trading partners, some stability appears to have returned to the financial markets. Is the worst of the slump over? It is far too early to predict that with any confidence – but there are two reasons for thinking it might be. It remains to be seen how the markets unfold over the next few days. There could well be a bankruptcy or two

Michael Simmons

Are Reeves’s fiscal rules really ‘ironclad’?

This afternoon, Keir Starmer recommitted to not raising income tax, VAT or employee National Insurance for the duration of this parliament. At the same time, he reiterated his support for Rachel Reeves’s ‘ironclad’ fiscal rules. Are both possible? Answering a question from GB News’s Chris Hope at a visit to the Jaguar Land Rover factory in the West Midlands the Prime Minister said: ‘We made that commitment in the manifesto and we were absolutely clear about it going into the Budget and the Spring Statement, and that is a commitment we’ve made and a commitment we will keep.’  In response to an earlier question from Sky, he also stood by

James Heale

China hits back against Trump’s tariffs

Donald Trump has sown the wind – and now America must reap the whirlwind. Beijing has today announced plans to slap an additional 34 per cent tax on all US imported goods from next Thursday. China had already applied tariffs – ranging from 10 to 15 per cent – to a range of American agricultural products after the last round of charges from the Trump administration. But now, after Chinese goods were hit by this week’s hike, taking the rate to 54 per cent (the US had existing tariffs on China), Beijing has delivered fresh retaliation. Export controls have been imposed on seven rare earth elements critical to the production

Will the markets make Trump see sense on tariffs?

This week Donald Trump declared ‘Liberation Day,’ unveiling a barrage of tariffs that had been trailed as correcting unfair trade practices overseas. In a theatrical Rose Garden ceremony, the US president presented a table, detailing a slew of new “reciprocal” tariffs targeting nations right across the globe. A sharp market reaction might lead to a change of heart in the White House Traditionally, trade reciprocity implies matching another country’s tariffs tit-for-tat. For instance, if the UK imposes a 10 per cent tax on US chicken, the US would impose the same import tax on British chicken. Many had anticipated that ‘Liberation Day’ would therefore introduce a complex array of tariffs reflecting

Trump can’t ignore the stock market carnage forever

As it turned out, the only thing Liberation Day was actually liberating anyone from was their money. In the wake of President Trump’s imposition of a massive round of tariffs on America’s trading partners the stock market has been in freefall. For the moment Trump is ignoring that. But he won’t be able to forever – a bear market is too damning a verdict on his presidency.  You can’t ‘make America great again’ in a bear market Investors, to put it mildly, took one look at the latest round of tariffs, and dumped equities as fast as possible. In the wake of the tariffs announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged