Money

Michael Simmons

Britain’s borrowing is spiralling out of control

Britain borrowed nearly £152 billion in the financial year to March – almost £21 billion more than at the same point in the last financial year, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The latest public finance figures reveal that borrowing in March was the third highest since records began in 1993. Crucially, it’s also nearly £15 billion more than what the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had expected for this point in the financial year. The £9.9 billion headroom Rachel Reeves left herself at the Spring Statement already looks to be in serious doubt. The current budget deficit, which is borrowing to fund day-to-day spending and the metric

Ross Clark

Is Britain really going to get a trade deal with the US?

Donald Trump loves Britain and loves the King; therefore we can expect a trade deal. That is the gist of J.D. Vance’s interview with UnHerd. Whether that means anything in practice is another matter. Evidently, the President’s love and affection was not enough to spare us from a 10 per cent tariff on exports to the US (and 25 per cent for cars). While Trump changed his mind last week and delayed most tariffs for 90 days there was no delay to the introduction of the 10 per cent tariffs, which will apply to all countries. All that happened as a result of last Thursday’s pullback was that Britain lost

Michael Simmons

China is hitting back with even more tariffs

China has retaliated against Donald Trump by raising duties on all American imports to 125 per cent from 84 per cent, declaring that it has no interest in responding further to what it calls a ‘joke’ policy. The higher rate will come into force from tomorrow. The announcement comes after the White House’s clarification that tariffs on Chinese exports have climbed to 145 per cent this year – a move China’s commerce ministry described as ‘economically meaningless’ and a tool for ‘bullying and coercion’. The world’s two largest economies exchange goods worth around $700 billion annually. Beijing has made it clear that it considers American goods effectively unmarketable within its

The EU is making a big mistake by retaliating against Trump

A Harley-Davidson will cost you a little more in France; Florida orange juice will be more expensive in Germany and American soybeans will go up in price everywhere across Europe. The European Union has decided to start taking the fight back to President Trump with a round of retaliatory tariffs. The trouble is, it is making a big mistake. Sure, we can all understand the desire to stand up to what it sees as bullying. But it is not going to win this battle.  In the wake of President Trump’s decision to impose a 20 per cent tariff on everything the EU sells in the United States, some form of

The hidden logic behind Trump’s market meltdown

Donald Trump’s announcement of huge levies on all the US’s major trading partners has triggered a global stock market meltdown, which may soon be followed by a full-blown recession. Almost no mainstream economist, and certainly none who believes in free markets and free trade, has a good thing to say about Trump’s tariffs. Yet there is a hidden logic behind the policy. It is not as completely brainless as it might appear. In fact, there are six reasons why the tariffs could make sense.  First, they may well be an effective battering ram for taking down tariff and trade barriers globally. No one seriously disputes that the American market is

Is the worst of the market crash over?

The FTSE-100 is up by a couple of hundred points. Germany’s DAX has added 400 points, and in Tokyo the Nikkei 225 rose by 6 per cent overnight. After the wild trading ever since President Trump announced the imposition of huge tariffs on all of America’s major trading partners, some stability appears to have returned to the financial markets. Is the worst of the slump over? It is far too early to predict that with any confidence – but there are two reasons for thinking it might be. It remains to be seen how the markets unfold over the next few days. There could well be a bankruptcy or two

Michael Simmons

Are Reeves’s fiscal rules really ‘ironclad’?

This afternoon, Keir Starmer recommitted to not raising income tax, VAT or employee National Insurance for the duration of this parliament. At the same time, he reiterated his support for Rachel Reeves’s ‘ironclad’ fiscal rules. Are both possible? Answering a question from GB News’s Chris Hope at a visit to the Jaguar Land Rover factory in the West Midlands the Prime Minister said: ‘We made that commitment in the manifesto and we were absolutely clear about it going into the Budget and the Spring Statement, and that is a commitment we’ve made and a commitment we will keep.’  In response to an earlier question from Sky, he also stood by

James Heale

China hits back against Trump’s tariffs

Donald Trump has sown the wind – and now America must reap the whirlwind. Beijing has today announced plans to slap an additional 34 per cent tax on all US imported goods from next Thursday. China had already applied tariffs – ranging from 10 to 15 per cent – to a range of American agricultural products after the last round of charges from the Trump administration. But now, after Chinese goods were hit by this week’s hike, taking the rate to 54 per cent (the US had existing tariffs on China), Beijing has delivered fresh retaliation. Export controls have been imposed on seven rare earth elements critical to the production

Will the markets make Trump see sense on tariffs?

This week Donald Trump declared ‘Liberation Day,’ unveiling a barrage of tariffs that had been trailed as correcting unfair trade practices overseas. In a theatrical Rose Garden ceremony, the US president presented a table, detailing a slew of new “reciprocal” tariffs targeting nations right across the globe. A sharp market reaction might lead to a change of heart in the White House Traditionally, trade reciprocity implies matching another country’s tariffs tit-for-tat. For instance, if the UK imposes a 10 per cent tax on US chicken, the US would impose the same import tax on British chicken. Many had anticipated that ‘Liberation Day’ would therefore introduce a complex array of tariffs reflecting

Trump can’t ignore the stock market carnage forever

As it turned out, the only thing Liberation Day was actually liberating anyone from was their money. In the wake of President Trump’s imposition of a massive round of tariffs on America’s trading partners the stock market has been in freefall. For the moment Trump is ignoring that. But he won’t be able to forever – a bear market is too damning a verdict on his presidency.  You can’t ‘make America great again’ in a bear market Investors, to put it mildly, took one look at the latest round of tariffs, and dumped equities as fast as possible. In the wake of the tariffs announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged

How Trump’s tariffs will hurt China

China has been hit hard by President Trump’s tariff list, which he unveiled yesterday in the White House rose garden. As part of his ‘Liberation Day’, Trump imposed new 34 per cent tariffs on China. This seems to be in addition to the 20 per cent tariffs levied on the country by the US since January. And in addition to 11 per cent tariffs previously applied after Beijing was accused of violating international trade and harming US commerce. That means the average tariff on imported goods from China possibly stands at 65 per cent. Next month, things will get even worse for China when the ‘de minimis’ exemption will be phased

Trump doesn’t understand how trade deficits work

After Donald Trump’s Liberation Day, the US now imposes far and away the highest tariffs of any developed country in the world. In the process of doing so Trump has completely rejected the cornerstone of the World Trade Organisation: the ‘most favoured nation’ principle whereby tariffs have to be the same on all countries you don’t have an explicit trade agreement with. He has also cast aside the US’s system of free trade agreements – for example, imposing tariffs on Australia despite there being a decades-old Australia-US agreement removing tariffs. His reasons for doing this reflect his dissatisfaction with the way the international financial order has worked for many years.

Philip Patrick

Japan has been stunned by the Trump tariffs

Virtually the whole world is waking up to the reality, not threat now, of President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, but in few places will the sense of shock and resultant anxiety be greater than Japan, where a whopping 24 per cent has been slapped on exports to the US. The Japanese, who have grown used to a decent relationship with successive American administrations and a whopping trade surplus, will have many sleepless nights ahead. The reaction here has not been one of anger or resentment – more stunned bemusement. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who did his best to cozy up to Trump on a recent summit in Washington (he presented Trump

Michael Simmons

This could be the largest US tax rise in half a century

Across the world, markets are plunging as they respond to the global tariffs Donald Trump unleashed from the White House rose garden last night – with the president’s top economist describing the falls as ‘short-term bumps’. The pound passed $1.30 for the first time in six months while stocks in Tokyo fell 4 per cent. On opening, the FTSE 100 fell nearly 2 per cent, despite the slightly more favourable 10 per cent levy we face compared to the 20 per cent Trump hit Europe with. How bad could these ‘bumps’ get for the US though? Trump returned to office promising tax cuts. But however he may spin his new

Trump’s tariffs are just bizarre

They would restore manufacturing, force trade barriers to be taken down, and allow new industries to be created. There have been various different explanations for why President Trump’s new tariff regime made sense. And yet when they were finally revealed yesterday one point was clear. There was no logic. The tariffs were just weird. The big reveal turned out to be a board that flapped around in the wind outside the White House. Donald Trump marked Liberation Day by holding up a placard with a list of countries – each one with a number next to it. The White House has worked out the tariffs it estimates American goods face in

Kate Andrews

Can Trump defend his tariff calculations?

When President Trump held up an easel in the White House Rose Garden illustrating each country’s ‘tariffs charged to the USA’ and the new ‘U.S.A. discounted reciprocal tariffs’, there appeared to be some small print underneath the first column, barely readable. Then printed copies started to circulate the garden. Underneath the column showing each country’s ‘tariffs charged’, it read: ‘including currency manipulation and trade barriers’.  It was clear that the figures published by the Trump Administration were their interpretation of tariff calculations. It was also immediately clear that some countries were going to dispute the figures. But exactly what had been calculated was not immediately obvious. The picture is still hazy

Kate Andrews

Trump has bet the house on tariffs

‘My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day’, Donald Trump told the audience that had gathered in the Rose Garden for his official signing of his executive order to put import levies on goods imported to the United States from around the world. There was no hesitation, there were no caveats: only utter enthusiasm from both the President and almost his whole cabinet, who cheered Trump on as he declared 2 April ‘the day America’s destiny was reclaimed’. Vice President J.D. Vance, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Homeland Security Kirsti Noem and House Speaker Mike Johnson were just some of the attendees, who all

Ross Clark

Trump’s tariffs are a real Brexit win

So, Britain has got its trade deal with the US – of sorts. Donald Trump has awarded Britain no exemption from his tariffs. Even so, he has left Britain off lightly, by imposing tariffs of 10 per cent on imports from Britain to the US – the lowest he imposed on any country, along with Brazil. The EU, by contrast, has been imposed with a tariff of 20 per cent. Finally, then, we have a tangible benefit of Brexit that no one can ignore. Were we still members of the EU, our exporters would be hit much harder than they are being. Given that the US is our single biggest

Ross Clark

Labour’s welfare crackdown is a sham

You can already sense Rachel Reeves’s spin machine whirring into action. It was Donald Trump wot ruined my careful book-keeping, the Chancellor will tell us as once again her fiscal headroom disappears and she ends up banging her scalp painfully on the ceiling. But could it be unrealistic expectations for her welfare reforms which prove her undoing? Tucked away in the government’s own figures is the revelation that Labour’s welfare shake-up could result in 400,000 more people signed off unfit for any work. Britain’s workshy culture has received another boost The contents of the impact assessment on her Spring Statement, published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) last week,