Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Tuesday

Patrick O’Flynn Patrick O'Flynn

Is migration really about to halve?

Could our current record levels of immigration be a flash in the pan, a statistical spike brought about by the confluence of several exceptional factors? After the figure for the twelve months to June 2022 came in at 606,000 net and more than one million gross, that would be a comforting notion for those who believe that mass immigration on this scale is feeding multiple social pathologies, from housing shortages to collapsing cultural cohesion. So perhaps we should rejoice at the news that two of our leading universities have put their seal upon a report suggesting that 2022’s net migration is not the shape of things to come but the

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

Say goodbye to tax cuts?

‘We are in a horrible fiscal bind’ says the Institute for Fiscal Studies this morning, as it publishes its Green Budget report ahead of the Autumn Statement. A combination of stagnant growth, stubborn inflation, rising debt interest payments and a tax burden at a postwar high has produced a grim assessment of the UK economy, which the IFS suggests will worsen in the coming years, as ‘huge fiscal pressures’ around the National Health Service and public sector pensions increase (more on that here). The report’s conclusion is that now is not the time to raise taxes. It would make terrifying reading for a Conservative prime minister and chancellor if they weren’t already aware

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Why didn’t Alex Chalk see the prison crisis coming?

Yesterday’s statement on prison reforms from the Justice Secretary Alex Chalk was very much one of those why-didn’t-you-see-this-coming affairs. Chalk has only been in the brief since April, but he has had more warning than the past fortnight that prison capacity was running out. One of the problems Chalk has is that he is mopping up thirteen messy years for the Ministry of Justice Yesterday he sought to reframe the story by arguing he had in fact seen it coming. He told MPs: ‘I have been candid from the moment I took on this role that our custodial estate is under pressure.’ But he tried to suggest that this was

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

It’s official: we don’t know how many people are unemployed

For perhaps the first time in its history, the Office for National Statistics does not know how many employed, unemployed and economically inactive people there are in the country. This morning, the monthly labour market figures were due to be published. But late last week news slipped out that the employment portion of the release would have to be delayed. The reason: plummeting survey response rates. You simply cannot make decisions about which levers to pull if we do not know how many people are in work Each month, Britain’s statisticians work out how many people there are in the workforce based on responses to a national ‘Labour Force Survey’.

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

In defence of Steve Bell

One of Britain’s best-known cartoonists, Steve Bell, says he has been ‘effectively sacked’ by the Guardian after drawing Benjamin Netanyahu. It wasn’t published, but he released it on Twitter (above). It depicts Netanyahu operating on his own stomach, showing a cut in the outline of the Gaza Strip. Bell then used Twitter to say what happened next: Losing him over this cartoon was a mistake and sets a dangerously low bar for what counts as unacceptable satire I filed this cartoon around 11 a.m., possibly my earliest ever. Four hours later, on a train to Liverpool I received an ominous phone call from the desk with the strangely cryptic message

Andrew Tettenborn

Donald Tusk’s victory will only please Brussels

Change in Poland looks likely. A second exit poll gives the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) the most votes, but not enough to form a majority. The nativist right-wing party Konfederacja might’ve helped them form a coalition, but even combined the two parties still don’t have the numbers. Ex-Eurocrat Donald Tusk, who leads Civic Platform (KO), says he has built a coalition with Lewica, on the left, and Third Way (TD), conservatives, that can govern Poland. The result is not particularly good for the Polish people, or for Europe, but the European Commission in Brussels, and progressives on the Continent generally, will be delighted. Brussels benefits twice over from Tusk’s

Sean Thomas

Beware interesting politicians

We’ve all been there, haven’t we? One minute you are sitting down, with a cup of tea, ready to listen to Sir Keir Starmer’s latest conference speech, the next you wake up, 17 hours later, the tea spilled across the floor, a line of dried spittle tracked on your chin, because Keir Starmer is so intolerably boring, after a mere three seconds of his stilted and nasal delivery you lapsed into a state of unconsciousness which was sufficiently profound to register on the Glasgow Coma Scale.  This, after all, is a man whose idea of an incredible story is the time he went to a hotel and they gave him

Gareth Roberts Gareth Roberts

The return of rational fear

‘I don’t feel safe’ is the cry of students the western world over at the prospect of hearing terrifying opinions such as ‘there are two sexes’ or ‘your skin colour shouldn’t matter’. This bluff talk of ‘hate’, terror and even, incredibly but regularly, ‘trans genocide’, used to come over merely as pathetic and entitled. Singer Will Young telling the Labour conference that he was ‘terrified’ of the Tories winning the next election would, the week before, have been merely laughable. Coming days after the slaughter in Israel, it sounded unforgivably crass and narcissistic. This is, I think, less a coherent political ideology than a sickness of western affluence mixed with

Svitlana Morenets Svitlana Morenets

Is Russia’s latest offensive faltering?

Russia’s latest offensive has exacted a heavy toll on its forces. They have lost 127 tanks, 239 armoured personnel vehicles and 161 artillery systems in the past week, according to Kyiv, with the casualties reaching more than 3,000 military personnel. Vladimir Putin is trying to change the narrative, framing Russian forces’ actions as ‘active defence’ rather than ‘active combat operations’. While Putin tries to temper expectations of major frontline gains, the battle for Avdiivka persists, albeit with waning intensity. ‘I hope that these dirtbags who settled in Avdiivka will be levelled with three-ton bombs in a similar way Israel is levelling Gaza right now’, said Sergey Mardan, a Russian state

Monday

Douglas Murray

What Shakespeare can teach us about cancel culture

The following is an edited excerpt from Douglas Murray’s lecture at the Sheldonian Theatre earlier tonight, in honour of Sir Roger Scruton. It features the actor Kevin Spacey reciting a scene from William Shakespeare’s Timon of Athens. By the last year of his life Roger had finally been not just honoured in his own country but given a position by a Conservative government to advise on that most pressing of issues – how to try to build beautiful housing in a country desperately in need of housing and even more desperately in need of beautiful housing. Roger was engaged in his researches when a young snake of a man came to

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Sunak calls the Israel attack a ‘pogrom’

Should the UK warn Israel about its response to the Hamas attack? The Prime Minister was very pointed as he told the Commons that people ‘should call [the 7 October attack] what it was: a pogrom’. His statement was grave and included full support for Israel and for Jewish people in Britain. He repeatedly told MPs that ‘we will continue to stand with Israel… not just today, not just tomorrow, but always’. He continued: ‘This atrocity was an existential strike at the very idea of Israel as a safe homeland for the Jewish people. I understand why it has shaken you to your core.’ Keir Starmer was similarly unequivocal in

Cindy Yu Cindy Yu

‘The mask has slipped’ – Tuvia Gering on China, Israel and Hamas

43 min listen

When China brokered a historic detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran earlier this year, it seemed that a new phase in world history – and certainly in Chinese foreign policy – had opened up. Instead of the US being a policeman of the world, it was the rising power, China, that was stepping into that role. Whereas Chinese foreign policy had previously only really cared about promoting trade and silencing dissidents, it seemed that perhaps, now, Beijing was taking a more leadership role in global diplomacy and security issues. And yet the events of the last week and China’s response to them have shown that perhaps the country isn’t ready

Ross Clark Ross Clark

How has Britain avoided a recession?

For the past 18 months, the UK economy has been stuck in the purgatory of an eternally predicted but non-arriving recession. The Office of Budgetary Responsibility (OBR), Bank of England, and the IMF have been among those to have predicted recessions that have not – yet – happened. But now, for what it is worth (which, to judge by the history of economic forecasting, is not much), one often-pessimistic body has stuck its neck out and said that Britain will avoid a recession. The EY Item Club has upgraded its forecast for economic growth across 2023 from 0.4 per cent to 0.6 per cent. Next year, it says that growth

Anna Richards

Poland’s rejection of conservatism isn’t quite as it seems

Poland looks set to head into a month of intense coalition-building. The exit poll for the country’s parliamentary election on Sunday showed Jarosław Kaczyński’s Law and Justice party with the single biggest result of 36.8 per cent, but it still fell short of being able to form a government by itself. Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition gained 31.6 per cent of the vote, followed by the Third Way with 13 per cent, the Left with 8.6 per cent, and Konfederacja with 6.2 per cent of the vote, respectively. The late poll released around 8 a.m. Polish time, which took account of around half of the election’s overall result, remained broadly consistent

Steerpike Steerpike

Sturgeon: I’m not the ‘Liz Truss of the SNP’

She’s back! It wouldn’t be a proper SNP jamboree without an appearance from the dear Leader, the self-identifying Chief Mammy of nationalist fervour, Nicola Sturgeon. As hard as she tried to claim her surprise visit to Aberdeen was not overshadowing her successor’s first party conference, Mr S wasn’t convinced that even she believed that… With her entrance to the annual conference given a hero’s welcome, Sturgeon was swarmed by adoring activists as she crowed to journalists about her ‘fair amount of electoral success’. Asked about her successor, she declared to the assembled press pack: ‘I think Humza is doing a fantastic job as leader of the party and as First

Euan McColm

The SNP’s new independence strategy is worse than the last

SNP members really are the cheapest dates in UK politics — they’ll lap up any old swill dished out by their leaders. After the Yes campaign in the 2014 independence referendum was defeated, the nationalist faithful unquestioningly accepted repeated promises from Nicola Sturgeon that they’d soon have a second chance — and that, this time, they’d win. The problem with the former Scottish First Minister’s position was that, for all her energising rhetoric, she didn’t have the authority to run another vote on the constitution. Sturgeon could, and frequently did, claim to be in possession of a mandate to deliver Indyref2 but she did not. Constitutional matters are reserved to

Limor Simhony Philpott

Netanyahu’s greatest failure

Over the weekend, the IDF confirmed that it killed the Hamas terrorist who commanded the attack on Israel a week earlier. It was later disclosed that the terrorist was arrested by Israel in 2005 for abducting and killing Israelis. He was released in 2011 by Netanyahu’s government in return for a captive Israeli soldier abducted in 2006 as part of a prisoner exchange deal. Netanyahu knew that Hamas received money, weapons and training from Iran The deal included the release of over 1,000 prisoners, many of them dangerous terrorists who returned to Gaza and rose through the ranks of Hamas. This controversial agreement exemplifies Netanyahu’s failed policy of containment and

Steerpike Steerpike

Peter Bone gives Sunak another by-election headache

Poor Rishi Sunak is stuck in a Sisyphean circle from hell. Each month, he prepares himself for a much-hyped reset, only to find himself fighting yet another by-election not of his own making. This Thursday he faces a brace of defeats in Mid-Bedfordshire and Tamworth thanks to the misdemeanours of Nadine Dorries and Chris Pincher respectively. A Tory defeat in the former would be the largest numerical majority to be overturned in British electoral history; a defeat in the latter would foreshadow the landslide that Tony Blair won 26 years ago. Now Sunak faces yet another by-election not of his own making – this time in Peter Bone’s Wellingborough seat.

David Cohen

Is New Zealand about to return to the world stage?

After six years of Labour party rule in New Zealand, the country’s foreign policy brings to mind the line about everything being at sea except the fleet. While the conservative National party of prime-minister-elect Christopher Luxon won on familiar-sounding domestic problems – galloping consumer prices, spiking interest rates and urban crime – the importance of foreign policy was not that far away.   For decades, New Zealand has made much of its independent foreign policy stance Luxon, a former airline boss, has hinted that he will be on board the diplomatic jet as soon as he has finished hammering out a coalition agreement. While the National party mustered an emphatic majority on