Exhibit A: Yvette Cooper urges the banks to pass the interest rate cut on to borrowers. Exhibit B: The state-owned Northern Rock withdraws tracker mortgages – which follow the movements of the base rate – to avoid passing rate cuts on to new borrowers.
Over the past few weeks, I’ve been critical of Team Osborne’s inability to distil their economic message – and their attacks on Gordon Brown – into simple language that can sink into the public consciousness. But, to be fair, Osborne’s just coined a fairly effective one-liner on the interest rate cut, that deserves highlighting: “It may be a shot in the arm but it shows how sick the patient is.” I’m sure there’ll be occasion for the shadow chancellor to wheel this one out again, in future – and not just in the case of further rate cuts. Now all he need do is figure out some zingers which articulate the Tory reponse to the
So, those pushing for a 1 percent cut in interest rates have got their wish – and then some. The Bank has just announced a 1.5 percent cut in base rates, bringing them down to 3 percent. That’s the biggest cut since 1981. Now what does this – frankly, quite astonishing – move tell us? Two things, in particular: 1) That the Bank feels that the doomsayers – the people like David Blanchflower, with their “cut rates or die” prognoses – are most probably right. Things are worse than the Bank initially thought, and they’re trying to play catch-up. And, 2) that the officials really, really want significant cuts to be passed on by banks to their customers. HBOS et al
The dramatic and urgently-needed cut in base rates – by 1.5 points to 3 percent – is a comment on the extent of the deep recession that Britain is sliding into. It has been made possible by the collapse in inflation expectations. Because fewer Brits will have salaries – and most of those who have are coping with real-terms pay cuts – shoppers’ wallets are empty of earned and borrowed cash. Shops will have to slash prices to move goods – it will be murder on the high street. Ergo the collapsing inflation expectations allow the MPC to drop rates. In fact the recession will be so bad that we can probably expect
Courtesy of Ladbrokes: SNP — 2/5 Labour — 7/4 Conservatives — 100/1 Lib Dems — 100/1
And so the polls have opened in an election closer to home: the Glenrothes byelection. We should see a result by the early hours of tomorrow morning, but the current expectation is that the SNP will come out narrowly on top. Both the betting markets and party insiders are playing down Labour’s chances. Whilst Alex Salmond is sounding typically bullish. Will a Labour loss mark the end of this latest ‘Brown bounce’? Almost certainly – and not least of all because Brown has invested himself, and his wife, so heavily in this campaign. But the question remains of what the rebound will look like. Will Labour’s opinion poll rating start
Washington is a city with a short memory. Today as I did the rounds before heading to New York and then Boston for a few days holiday, John McCain’s name was barely mentioned as anything other than a footnote. But if Tuesday night marked the beginning of the end of McCain’s career in public service, he deserves a proper and full-throated vote of thanks. First of all, John McCain has served his country in ways that few of us can imagine. No matter how many times it is said or the partisan uses it is put to, there is no doubt that John McCain’s refusal of special treatment in Vietnam
Are you interested in technology and technology policy and politics? If so then you should zip on over to Julian Sanchez’s new blog, Law & Disorder at Ars Technica. Goodness assured.
I’d wondered how Melanie Philips – Britain’s pop-eyed, vein-bulging answer to Andy McCarthy and Stanley Kurtz – might react to the election of Barack Obama. Happily, she doesn’t disappoint: Those of us who have looked on appalled during this most frightening of presidential elections – at the suspension of reason and its replacement by thuggery — can only hope that the way this man governs will be very different from the profile provided by his influences, associations and record to date. It’s a faint hope – the enemies of America, freedom and the west will certainly be rejoicing today… What this election tells us is that America voted for change
There’s a rather odd notion in some circles that black people voting for Barack Obama on the grounds that he is black is itself somewhat racist. Here’s Iain Dale for instance: I could hardly believe my ears this morning, listening to my old mucker Yasmin Alibhai-Brown on 5 Live, talking about the US election. Shelagh Fogarty quoted a poll saying that 97% of black voters in America are supporting Obama. She asked Yasmin if she thought it was OK for black people to vote for him purely because he is black. Yasmin said yes, she thought it was absolutely fine. I wonder what she would have said to white voters
A little sign of the way in which this election has touched people is the fact that you cannot buy a copy of the Washington Post today for love nor money. There is currently a huge queue outside the Post building downtown as people wait for the arrival of a special commemorative edition of the paper. Meanwhile, the chatter continues about who Obama will appoint to key jobs. At the moment there is the most buzz around Rahm Emanuel as White House Chief of Staff, Larry Summers as Treasury Secretary, Jim Steinberg as National Security Advisor and possibly Colin Powell as education secretary. The Republicans, by contrast, are licking their
Flicking between the news stations just now, I came across a channel showing the episode of the West Wing in which Matt Santos, a Latino candidate, is elected president. But when you think about Obama’s story it is more remarkable than any TV or film script. Indeed, in fiction it would seem implausible. Four and a bit years ago, a black Senate candidate with an usual name addressed the Democratic National Convention. The sheer power of his rhetoric transformed him from an aspiring local politician to a national figure. He spoke to a widespread yearning for unity. A couple of years later, after a book tour in which he had drawn crowds
And so back to the relative drudgery of Westminster politics with Coffee House’s live blog of PMQs. Not that Obama’s election victory won’t feature in the to-and-fro between our party leaders – as Ben Brogan reveals, Brown’s going to use the opportunity to continue casting Obama as a “fellow progressive” rather than one of those pesky novices. And what else? Well, I wouldn’t be too surprised if our PM makes a lot out of his Saving the World dash around the Middle East – whilst Cameron’s goal will be to undermine that narrative. All will be revealed from 1200 onwards. 1204: Brown starts with condolences for fallen British troops, and
No man on Earth has more new best friends that a President-elect – especially the first black Commander-in-Chief, a walking charisma machine, swept to victory by a nation longing for change and hope. Nick Robinson’s fisk of some of the remarks made by British politicians in the past twelve hours is unimprovable. Brown sees Obama as a prospective centre-Left ally in his Plan to Save the World; Cameron salutes the new Novice-in-Chief on his way to the White House as a comrade in the battle for change. Which British party leader will do a better job of claiming to be Barack’s spiritual brother? I have no idea. But it is
Some early thoughts on the American election results: 1) What Bradley effect? Obama won white men 57-41– that’s five points higher than Bush managed in 04. So much for the idea that this election would expose America’s racist underbelly. I wonder if those who have been banging on about it for the last few weeks will now ask if Obama’s “improbable journey” would have been possible in any European democracy? 2) No conservative wipeout. McCain looks like ending up on 47% of the national vote – a huge figure, given this has perhaps been the Republicans’ worst year for a generation. So we have almost half of America voting conservative
For the record, here are Gordon Brown’s and David Cameron’s reponses to the Obama election victory: Gordon Brown “I have just sent my warmest congratulations to Senator Obama, on his election as President of the United States of America. And I have also sent my best wishes to Michelle, and his family. This is a moment that will live in history, as long as history books are written. I’ve talked to Senator Obama on many occasions and I know he is a true friend of Britain. And I know that the values we share in common, the policies on which we can work together, will enable us as two countries to come through
If I had to pick one word to describe the culmination of the US Presidential race it would be “electric”. From the 240,000 who gathered to hear Obama’s address in Grant Park, to the parties that are still going on in Washington, New York, London, Paris, Berlin, Wherever, there is – and has been – an electricity about this campaign that current British politics can only dream of replicating. As Fraser and James have noted, that America has elected its first black President is a point for celebration. But tomorrow – tomorrow America needs to concentrate on the challenges facing the 44th President. I’m reminded of the final shot of John Ford’s
Rather than stay up very late, I got up very early and have been watching the American networks. Any leftie tuning in to Fox looking for a dose of schadenfreude will be sorely disappointed. There is no sense of the anger that the left had when George W Bush won. Bill O’Reilly describes Obama as “brilliant and personable”. The commentators on the right are saluting Obama’s campaign, and sharing a sense of patriotic pride that America is so capable of renewal that it has elected a black man to be president. Here are a few quotes that have jumped out at me. “He fought a brilliant campaign, beginning with his total befuddlement
Over the weekend all the talk was about how McCain had to win pretty much every battleground state that was still in play and how that would be nigh-on-impossible. But Obama has pretty much done that tonight. He has won Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and Indiana and is looking good in North Carolina. This string of victories shows just how good the Obama campaign and its ground organisation are. Of course, talking about ground games right now seems inadequate to the moment. We have just seen America elect its first black president. A nation that has been tainted since its founding by racism has just elevated the
I ought to be a natural Warren Buffett. I’ve never had any difficulty doing the opposite of what everyone else is doing. If there ever was anyone capable of being ‘fearful when everyone else is greedy and greedy when everyone else is fearful’, it’s me. Why, then, is Warren Buffett worth tens of billions and I’m scratching to break even after years of investing? It isn’t that I haven’t been on the lookout for what Buffett calls ‘moments of maximum pessimism’. I have. I’ve been buying into them strongly. It’s just that there have been so many moments of maximum pessimism that I’ve used up all the cash I put