Society

Tuesday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

In other news…

It won’t get as much attention as it should because of today’s announcement on spending by the Tories, but Michael Gove’s speech this evening pledging to allow state schools to choose alternative exams to GCSEs and A-Levels is important. It offers a way away from the race to bottom in examination standards that has so bedevilled the education system in recent years. It will also be a genuinely meritocratic reform; no longer will it just be pupils from independent schools who have access to things like the IB, the Pre-U and IGCSES. Education is the policy area where the Tories are most consistently innovative. The fluency of their thinking on

Peter Hoskin

A Book A Week

Just to flag up a little task I’ve set myself over at the Spectator Book Club.  The plan is for me to read a book each week, and review and discuss it on the site’s discussion board.  The first book will be Tom Bower’s biography of Gordon Brown, and the thread for it – along with more information about my future reads – is here.  It ‘s certainly not obligatory, but ‘twould be nice to see some CoffeeHousers over there – if only so you can make sure I don’t skip a week…

Peter Hoskin

Is this what the Labour counterattack will look like?

The Standard’s Paul Waugh blogs on how Labour might outflank the Tories on spending cuts, in rhetoric if not in deed: “Downing Street has just revealed that Yvette Cooper led a Cabinet discussion on the post-Gershon efficiency review – and made plain that the Chancellor will next week suggest that he wants to go beyond the £30 billion in savings (aka cuts) already announced. Ms Cooper explained to colleagues how “there may be scope to go beyond” the £30 billion, Number 10 said… …the politics are clear. This is Labour saying ‘we are already getting maximum value for money for the taxpayer and cutting spending back as much as possible.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Tories should move all their MPs to Witney or Tatton

One of the underappreciated factors in Obama’s success is that his campaign was not based in the Washington area. This meant there were fewer journalists around, fewer bits of gossip were picked up in bars and restaurants and those who moved to Chicago to work for the campaign were focused on getting Obama elected and not worried about protecting their own reputations among the political and journalistic elite. It all aided the ‘No drama with Obama’ mantra and meant that when he hit a rocky patch the effect wasn’t amplified by a string of stories filled with blind quotes from staffers about worries within the campaign. By contrast, when the

Peter Hoskin

Should the Tories fear these poll numbers?

Courtesy of Political Betting, the headline figures from the latest MORI poll: Conservatives — 40 percent (down 5) Labour — 37 percent (up 7) Lib Dems — 12 percent (down two) Opinion polls have been varying wildly over the past couple of weeks, so it will be interesting to see if – and how – they settle after the PBR.  In the meantime, numbers like these will fuel the idea that Brown’s set to call an early election.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Credit where credit’s due

Today’s news that the Tories will no longer pledge to match Labour’s spending plans will, I’m sure, be welcomed by CoffeeHousers. The word on the street is that there will be more announcements coming soon that will indicate a more robust Tory approach on the economy. But it is worth noting that it is also confirmation of another ConservativeHome scoop following on from the news that the Tories are, as Tim reported back in September planning to downplay—or dump—green taxes. (Personally, I’m not convinced this is a good idea. Those of us on the right should be in favour of shifting the tax burden from work to waste.) These scoops are further proof

Peter Hoskin

Osborne delivers a clear Tory message

This from George Osborne, speaking on the Beeb just now: “Spending restraint under Conservatives, tax rises under Labour” This bluntly effective message – that Brown’s tax-cuts-now translate to tax-rises-in-future – is perhaps that best chance the Tories have to set the economic narrative. Hat-tip: Politics Home

Peter Hoskin

Cameron dumps Labour spending plans

I wrote earlier that David Cameron needed to do more to to outline how the Tories will respond to the fiscal and economic downturn.  He just has.  In a keynote speech, the Tory leader announced that his party will ditch their commitment to match Labour spending plans for 2010/11.  The emphasis now, as he put it, is on building a low tax, low debt, low interest rate economy Now, this marks a massive strategic shift for the Cameroons.  To all intents and purposes, the nebulous “sharing the proceeds of growth” concept has been jettisoned.  The emphasis now is on cutting back the size of the state and, one assumes, using

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The social effects of recession

David Brooks has a typically masterful column in the New York Times this morning on the social consequences of recessions. His warning about the possible impact on people’s perceptions of democracy and the market system in developing countries are particularly worth paying attention to. But it was this statistic about the US that jumped out at me: “The recession of the 1970s produced a cynicism that has never really gone away. The share of students who admitted to cheating jumped from 34 percent in 1969 to 60 percent a decade later.” I’d be fascinated to know what the statistics on this are for Britain today compared to 50 years ago.

Peter Hoskin

The Tory attack operation warms up

There’s a punchy op-ed from David Cameron in today’s Guardian, centred around this three-pronged attack on Brown’s borrowing binge: “But excessive borrowing, adding to permanent national debt, to cut taxes or boost spending is the wrong approach. There are three reasons for this. The first is that we simply cannot afford it. We’re already mired in debt thanks to Brown’s age of irresponsibility – £2.4 trillion at the last estimate – so we have nothing to fall back on. Paying back Brown’s planned £15bn borrowing binge will mean the equivalent of an additional £880 tax bill for every family in Britain. Imagine the toll this would take on people. Think

Monday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

She’s Back! (Maybe)

I don’t know. You go away for an internet-free weekend and everything seems more or less normal. You return and discover that there’s much talk that Hillary Clinton could be the next US Secretary of State. Blimey! Andrew is, I think, depressed by this but concludes that shoving Hillary over to Foggy Bottom means she can’t damage Obama without also, presumably, damaging her own chances of succeeding him. Perhaps! On the other hand, Mike Crowley says: A stint at State, incidentally, would set Hillary up pretty nicely for 2016, if she’s interested. (She’ll be 69 years old on Election Day of that year.) No longer would people doubt the validity

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Will Bill play ball, so Hillary can be Secretary of State?

Mike Allen reports the latest on the Hillary for Secretary of State story: “Team Obama, after all but offering SecState to Senator Clinton, is expressing EXASPERATION with the Clinton camp for the difficulty in getting a clean vet on President Bill Clinton’s many entanglements. “The ball is very much in her court, but the president’s finances have been a major point of sensitivity from day one,” a Democratic official said. (“Day One!”) “Given that everyone’s mystified by how deliberately public the Clintons have made this once secret process, the assumption is either that the Clintons are trying to use the public buzz to steamroll their way in, create a sense

Peter Hoskin

There may be damp squibs ahead

Just to follow up Fraser’s and Daniel’s posts, Clive Crook’s column in the FT today contains a striking example of just how few waves this G20 summit created: “You might have thought that an emergency gathering of leaders from the world’s 20 main rich and emerging economies, with the global economy poised for its worst slump since the Great Depression, would have aroused some interest. The event was deemed unworthy of the main section of Saturday’s New York Times. (Room was found on the front page for a story about how hard it is to open the “clamshell” packaging of toys and electronic gadgets. The summit, “A crisis in finance”,

Daniel Korski

The Watford System?

Rarely has a summit been so hastily organised, hyped so much, yet achieved as little as last week’s G20 meeting called by President George W. Bush to deal with the world’s financial crisis. World leaders did agree on a confidence-boosting package of economic assistance, but put off sorting out any detailed plans on overhauling financial management and regulation, or revising the problematic global currency trade and settlement regime until their next summit, scheduled on April 30, when the United States will be steered by President Barack Obama. So what should happen between now and the April 30 meeting, which may take place in Watford (and make that pre-Roman trackway in

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Will Peter Mandelson end up a national treasure?

I know this will be anathema to most Coffee Housers, but I can’t help wondering if Peter Mandelson will become a much-loved figure once he leaves the political stage. Tony Benn proves that even the most controversial political figures can work their way into the nation’s affections once they are out of power. The thought first occurred to me at The Spectator Parliamentarian Awards where Mandelson reveled in playing up to his own reputation; if Alan Rickman was ever to tire of the role, Mandelson would be perfect for the part of Severus Snape in the Harry Potter movies. Now, we hear from Andrew Sparrow that Mandelson is promising to

Peter Hoskin

CoffeeHousers’ Wall, 17 November – 23 November

Welcome to the latest CoffeeHousers’ Wall. For those who haven’t come across the Wall before, it’s a post we put up each Monday, on which – provided your writing isn’t libellous, crammed with swearing, or offensive to common decency – you’ll be able to say whatever you like in the comments section. There is no topic, so there’s no need to stay ‘on topic’ – which means you’ll be able to debate with each other more freely and extensively. There’s also no constraint on the length of what you write – so, in effect, you can become Coffee House bloggers. Anything’s fair game – from political stories in your local

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Tories are being outspun

If anyone doubts that the Labour spin machine is once more firing on all cylinders turn to pages 2 and 3 of The Sun today. On page 2, under the headline ‘Hans off PM’s car’, Sun readers are informed that ‘Gordon Brown has snubbed German car maker BMW and insisted his new bomb proof limo is a British Jaguar.’ While on the opposite page, we hear about how ‘X Factor finalists were stunned to receive letters from the Prime Minister praising them for chart-topping charity single Hero.’ These are just small examples of a Labour operation that once more has the bit between its teeth. Just look at how effectively

Peter Hoskin

Do the forecasts point to an early election?

The CBI have come out with another set of gloomy forecasts this morning, by which the recession will be “deeper and longer lasting” than previously thought.  They predict that the economy will contract by 1.7 percent in 2009 and that unemployment will hit just under 3 million in 2010.   It’s still something that I think unlikely, but every forecast such as this strengthens the increasingly popular idea that Brown will call an early election.  Not only will he find it more difficult to maintain his Economic Saviour narrative as the recession worsens and unemployment skyrockets.  But also – if he waits – then the very real possibility of other

Sunday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

A constitutional monarch is best seen and not heard when it comes to politics

Jonathan Dimbleby’s essay in The Sunday Times about the kind of king Prince Charles would be suggests that the monarchy will be in for a turbulent time if and when Charles ascends to the throne. Dimbleby reports that Charles intends to move away from the strict silence on political issues of his mother and instead adopt a role more akin to that of the German or Irish president. Obviously keen to avoid encouraging comparisons to To Play the King, Dimbleby stresses that Charles would avoid partisan issues. But the examples of topics where Charles might speak out that Dimbleby gives are intensely political, even if they are not particuarly party