All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories
Yet again, listeners to the Today programme awoke this morning to hear a dire forecast for the economic consequences of leaving the EU – with no critical analysis nor even explanation of how the forecast was arrived at. This morning’s horror story came courtesy of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR), a
Will the Tories’ election gamble pay off? Or will Boris Johnson follow in the footsteps of his predecessor and regret his decision to call a snap poll? Win or lose, the Boris’s fortunes are likely to be decided in a handful of marginal seats up and down the country. If the Conservatives can win back
All Hallows’ Eve is almost upon us and busy-bodies everywhere are sharpening their knives ahead of the inevitable annual costume scandal. For ordinary party-goers, there is reason to be fearful. Pick the wrong outfit and the consequences – getting fired, kicked out of university, ending up on the front page of a national newspaper –
In this week’s Spectator Books, I’m talking to the award-winning historian Thomas Penn about his new book The Brothers York: An English Tragedy — in which he argues that the ‘Wars of the Roses’ weren’t determined by a struggle between the houses of York and Lancaster so much as by the catastrophic white-on-white conflict that cause
Halloween used to be easy. It was a fancy-dress party: you could wear whatever you liked. The idea was to have fun. As teens, my friends and I would dress up as ghouls, spiders or witches, with cones of black paper on our heads. When we became more mature, Halloween turned into a tarty affair.
The House of Commons has just voted by 438 to 20 for a 12 December election. Given that amendments on extending the franchise were not selected as they were out of scope, the Commons has also backed an election with the existing general election franchise. Even in these unpredictable times, it would be jaw dropping if
At long last, it looks like there’s going to be a general election to break the Brexit deadlock. The House of Commons has voted to hold an election on 12 December, after MPs on both sides of the political aisle backed a one-line government bill, which now moves on to the House of Lords. But rather
As a vote on the government’s plan to hold an election beckons, the Prime Minister has made the decision to restore the Conservative whip to 10 of the 21 Brexit rebels. This group collectively lost the whip when they voted for the Benn bill which forced the government to seek an Article 50 extension rather than
The December election that now looks inevitable will be, as all elections are, a test. A test of a decade-old government that isn’t entirely sure what its achievements in office have been. A test of the public’s continuing appetite for Brexit and its tolerance for parliamentary histrionics. A test, too, of whether the country is
The prospect of a Christmas election is one the Scottish Conservatives do not greet with enthusiasm. The party has lost its leader, must fight a Brexit election in a country that voted 62 per cent Remain, and faces an SNP riding high in the polls. It is not difficult to imagine a scenario in which
Heidi Allen has announced she is standing down at the election, citing the culture of abuse and intimidation in politics as one of the reasons. In a letter to her constituents, she writes: ‘I am exhausted by the invasion into my privacy and the nastiness and intimidation that has become commonplace. Nobody in any job
‘It’s going to be fun’. Thus a beaming Jeremy Corbyn announced that he had decided his condition for a general election had been met, namely that there won’t be a no-deal Brexit on October 31. And so he fired the starting gun on six weeks of campaigning before a polling day (probably) of December 12.
The first thing to be said about a general election in December is that it is necessary. This is the case regardless of your particular Brexit preference (though should that preference be a wish for it all to go away, I am afraid not even an election can offer you any relief). The government lacks
Jeremy Corbyn has said that Labour will back a December election. This means that it is now highly likely to happen. Indeed, the only thing that could prevent it would be if an amendment was added to the bill changing the franchise: for example, giving 16 and 17-year-olds or EU nationals the vote. In those
Britain is heading for an election on 12 December. MPs are currently voting to confirm the Government’s preferred date for a snap poll after the Commons rejected Jeremy Corbyn’s bid to shift the polling date to 9 December. Earlier today Jeremy Corbyn confirmed Labour would back Boris Johnson’s plan for a snap poll. The Labour leader
Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas. If I had a penny for every time I’d heard that phrase recently to explain why some Labour MPs didn’t want an election, I’d have enough to buy, well, a turkey. It seems such an obvious argument. Behind in the polls, often by double digits, they have a leader in
Anyone looking at the glacial pace of this recent Parliament when it comes to Brexit, and its tortuous decision to extend Article 50 once again, will probably understand why Boris Johnson is so keen to call an election this Christmas – especially when he doesn’t currently have a majority in the House of Commons. For
By the end of the day tomorrow, we will know if Boris Johnson is going to get the 2019 election he craves. Minutes ago he responded to the government’s failure to get the two thirds vote necessary for an election under tonight’s Fixed-term Parliament Act motion by saying that the government would present a bill
Would anyone want an election after witnessing this afternoon’s Commons debate on the matter? Both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn have just produced rambling, slightly nonsensical speeches arguing their corner. The Prime Minister wants an election. The Leader of the Opposition does not. Neither offered much that was convincing to support those stances. Johnson’s main
The stronger the prospect of a general election, the easier it will be for Boris Johnson to get through the week that Britain was supposed to be leaving the European Union. He had said he would rather ‘be dead in a ditch’ than miss the deadline, but is now taking a two-pronged approach to distracting
Keith Vaz is facing the longest suspension in history after the Commons Standards Committee found he had breached the MPs’ Code of Conduct by paying two male escorts for sex and offering to cover the cost of cocaine for a third man. The Committee – which is made up of MPs and lay members, said
Anyone else enjoying the falling apart of the People’s Vote campaign? It’s one of the funniest news stories I’ve read in months. It’s like a soap opera. EastEnders with posh people. And I’m not only chortling over it because I’m a Brexiteer who’s loving the Schadenfreude of seeing the kind of people who don’t respect
Will an election be called this week? That’s the growing expectation among Conservative MPs. Later today the government will hold a vote on an early election for December 12 under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. To pass, Boris Johnson needs two thirds of MPs to back him. However, this is very unlikely – with Labour MPs
Some fiddly amendments from Sir Oliver Letwin that no one quite understands. A legal action against someone or other from Gina Miller. Lots of protest marches. A petition or two – and possibly even an unreadable novella from Ian McEwan/JK Rowling/John Le Carre (delete as applicable) ranting against Brexit. We don’t quite know yet how
It’s all out chaos at the People’s Vote campaign today, after the outgoing chairman of Open Britain (one of the campaign’s five organisations) Roland Rudd attempted to fire the group’s head of communications, Tom Baldwin, and its director, James McGrory. In their place, Rudd wished to appoint Patrick Heneghan, the former head of campaigns for the Labour
Oh dear. As Boris Johnson attempts to call a general election, this could be the week that supporters of a second referendum get together and push for a so-called people’s vote before any snap poll. One of the big Tory worries is that a majority of MPs could coalesce around such a position. However, that
In The Idea of a University John Henry Newman argued that the purpose of higher education was ‘to open the mind, to correct it, to refine it, to enable it to know, and to digest, master, rule, and use its knowledge, to give it power over its own faculties.’ I often wonder what he would make of
Have you ever wondered why so few moderate Muslim voices are heard in the public debate? I used to, until I started to defend my faith against its extremist defamers. I then found out that any Muslim who ventures into this arena to stand up against hardliners is subject to fierce and immediate character assassination.
Have you ever wondered why so few moderate Muslim voices are heard in the public debate? I used to, until I started to defend my faith against its extremist defamers. I then found out that any Muslim who ventures into this arena to stand up against hardliners is subject to fierce and immediate character assassination.
Trump’s presidency is, in many ways, the Obama Undoing Project. Look at the Iran deal, environmental legislation, labour laws, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and much else. Anything Barack did, I can undo better. That could be the Donald’s leitmotif. (Put aside Obamacare, for now.) One Obama-era accomplishment cannot be undone, however: the killing of Osama bin
When President Donald Trump speaks at a press conference later today we can be sure he will be milking, for all it is worth, the presumed killing of Isis leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi during a raid on his compound in north-western Syria by US special forces. Trump is said to have authorised the operation last
Whenever I use the security lane at an airport, I enjoy watching people retrieving their bags and metallic items when they emerge from the X-ray machine. You can quickly divide the population into two: a small minority of ‘logistically aware’ systems-thinkers and the logistically challenged majority. To anyone with a grasp of systems thinking, it
At the New Yorker Festival party in mid-October, my astute colleague hardly needed the caution. But you know how at a discombobulating bash you seize gratefully on something to talk about. So as Matthew Goodwin and I rubbed elbows with the East Coast elite at the Old Town Bar in Manhattan (‘Look! It’s Ronan Farrow!’),
Jo Swinson: we want an election on 9 December Opposition parties are overcoming their opposition to an early general election, and are putting forward their own strategies for how to hold one. The Liberal Democrats and the SNP plan to submit a short amendment to the Fixed-term Parliaments Act tomorrow, which would set an election