Coalition

Tuesday

Ed Holmes

Allowing growth, not forcing it

What is a “Budget for Growth,” and how can one be delivered? These questions have been preoccupying civil servants across Whitehall, policy folk in think tanks, and the press since the coalition announced in November that it would be reporting back on its “Growth Review” in the 2011 Budget. While foreign events rightly moved discussion of the impending Budget further back in last weekend’s papers, there was extensive coverage of the potential for targeted tax cuts and reliefs and incentives targeted at particular industries or sectors. The obvious problem with a number of these is that they cost money, and this is something the coalition does not have in spades.

Peter Hoskin

Your five-point guide to tomorrow’s Budget

From rescue to recovery — that’s how George Osborne is selling his Budget ahead of its release tomorrow. But what might we see beyond the rhetoric? Here’s a five-point guide for CoffeeHousers:   1) Growth. It almost feels like a tradition now: a new Budget, and a new set of forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility. Chief among them will be what the OBR says about growth. Its previous forecast for 2011, made last November, was for 2.1 per cent growth in 2011 — but that will almost certainly be downgraded after the mini-slump in the fourth quarter of last year. As this graph shows, the average of the

Monday

James Forsyth

Targeting Gaddafi

The press is currently making great play of an apparent difference between General Richard and Liam Fox on whether or not Gaddafi can be targeted. The whole debate flags up one of the absurdities of international legal convention. If it is legitimate to hit a Libyan tank crew moving on Benghazi, why it is not legitimate to target the person who is ultimately giving these orders?     Given the whole nature of the Libyan state, the fastest — and, I would say, most humane — way to end this conflict would be to kill Gaddafi. Anne-Marie Slaughter, until recently the head of policy planning at the State Department, argued

Peter Hoskin

Obama’s nervousness makes life difficult for him and his allies

Gingerly, gingerly — that’s how the Americans are approaching the presentational battle over Libya, if not the actual campaign itself. There is no bombast in the official broadcasts from Washington, nor categorical intent. Instead we have Robert Gates emphasising, as he did yesterday evening, that the US will soon handover “primary responsibility” for the mission to us or the French. Or there’s Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, saying that “potentially one outcome” is for Gaddafi to stay in power (see video above). The idea of regime change, or of deeper US involvement, is being downplayed all round. What’s clear, perhaps even understandable, is that Obama

Sunday

James Forsyth

Why Osborne is so interested in merging income tax and National Insurance

When trying to understand George Osborne Budgets, you need to bear in mind the mantra that he and his team live by: in opposition you move to the centre, in government you move the centre. It is this desire to move the centre ground that lies behind Osborne’s keenness to merge income tax and national insurance. As I say in the Mail on Sunday, the thinking behind it is that if people were more aware of how much tax they really paid, they’d be more inclined to vote for low-tax parties. At the moment, National Insurance is one of the taxes people are least aware of as it is simply

Saturday

Andrew Haldenby

The government has been the author of its troubles

In his Spectator column this week, James Forsyth painted a picture of a government taken by surprise by enemies who have, in effect, ambushed them – the civil service, the civil service’s lawyers and the European Union in particular. Clearly the government is frustrated by the “forces of conservatism” and the “enemies of enterprise”, but the difficult truth is that a lot the government’s problems are of its own making, and in its own hands to put right. When it comes to the civil service, the government hasn’t simply inherited an uncooperative Whitehall. It has strengthened its position, as a conscious policy decision. Francis Maude said it in terms at

Friday

Tom Clougherty

The NHS needs reform, but are Lansley’s the way to do it?

I am in two minds about Andrew Lansley’s proposed reforms of the National Health Service, the cornerstone of which is the transfer of commissioning responsibility from Primary Care Trusts to GP-consortia. On the one hand, the NHS desperately needs radical reform. On the other hand, I’m not sure these are the right reforms, and I’m not sure they are sufficiently radical to deliver a real difference to patients. Let’s start with why the NHS needs reform. Firstly, it is eye-wateringly expensive at 8.1 percent of 2010 GDP, or £120bn a year. Costs have skyrocketed since 1999, doubling in real terms in the 10 years to 2009. Over that same period,

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Clegg’s coup

Libya is not the only scene of conflict today. Nick Clegg has just won a powerful victory over the Conservatives, appointing a Bill of Rights commission which is certain to leave the ECHR intact. When you see the names Philippe Sands, Helena Kennedy and Lord Lester on the list — even alongside Tories — you know that this review is over before it has begun. Clegg is a firm believer in Europe, and has played his hand very well — outmanoeuvering the Conservatives who thought that a British Bill of Rights should supplant edicts from Strasbourg. Upshot: there may still be a Bill of Rights, containing various declarations inserted by

Thursday

James Forsyth

The government’s escalating fight with the civil service

Talk to a Cabinet minister these days and you’ll nearly always get a string of complaints about the civil service. Cabinet ministers have come to see them as obstructionist, problem finders. David Cameron went public with these feelings in his spring forum speech when he announced that there were ‘enemies of enterprise’ within the government machine. This prompted a rebuke from Sir Gus O’Donnell, the Cabinet Secretary. Traditionally, criticising civil servants is regarded as out of order because they can’t answer back. But the truth is, as former Blair speechwriter Phil Collins points out in the Times today, that civil servants now have power without accountability. Sub-standard ones aren’t sacked,

Peter Hoskin

Osborne’s grand merger?

George Osborne’s Budget — his plan to deliver us from “rescue to recovery,” apparently — is less than a week away, and the wildfire of speculation is taking hold. Perhaps the most intriguing titbit in today’s papers is one that also appeared in the Express last Saturday: that Osborne is considering merging income tax and national insurance. This is a measure that the Office for Tax Simplification recommended in a report last week, suggesting that it would ease the administrative burden on small businesses. Yet that simply echoes a viewpoint that stretches back decades. This IFS report, for instance, quotes an article published by the British Tax Review during the

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson

The grade inflation scam

Today’s OECD Economic Survey of the UK (download the complete pdf here ) contains some devastating passages about our education system. As it’s 148 pages in size, we thought CoffeeHousers might appreciate some highlights. Here’s your starter for ten: “Despite sharply rising school spending per pupil during the last ten years, improvements in schooling outcomes have been limited in the United Kingdom.” This is rather a staggering indictment of Tony Blair’s “education, education, education” policy. But what about the ever improving exam results that we hear about each summer? Again, the OECD:   “Official test scores and grades in England show systematically and significantly better performance than international and independent

Peter Hoskin

Not great, not a disaster

Last November, the OECD forecast — as it does — that the UK economy would grow by 1.7 per cent in 2011. Today, it has downgraded that figure to 1.5 per cent. I wonder, does this matter? Sure, it’s not an encouraging sign. And Ed Balls will be slathering at the thought of the OBR doing likewise next week. He has barely been able to contain his excitement already. Yet it’s worth pointing out two things. First, that the OECD is just one forecaster among many. The Treasury monitors no less than 39 independent organisations, and collects their forecasts on a monthly basis. Here’s what the picture looks like today:

David Blackburn

Milburn on Lansley’s health reforms

Andrew Lansley’s health reforms have never been in the rosiest of health; but, as Pete observed yesterday, the current malaise may leave permanent damage. Paul Waugh has been speaking to Alan Milburn and the modernising former Health Secretary’s words speak volumes about Lansley’s trails: “I’m amazed they allowed themselves to get into talk about privatisation and cuts. Having originally said this was a revolution they’re now saying it’s just evolution of Labour’s reforms. Politically, it doesn’t make sense. “Look, a managed form of competition is fine. The problem is that the lynchpin of the reforms was GP commissioning. “It’s a good idea to get family doctors to be aware of

Peter Hoskin

David Cameron’s dreams and nightmares are written into today’s employment figures

It is almost a cliche to describe jobs figures as a “mixed picture” — and yet that’s exactly what today’s are. Beneath the headline finding that the number of unemployed people has risen above 2.5 million, are numbers that will fuel not only David Cameron’s happiest dreams, but also his most paranoid nightmares. Let’s start with the nicer stuff first. The graph above shows the cumulative change in employment levels since the recession started to take hold in 2008. What it shows is something that often goes ignored: that is was the private sector, not the public sector, that took the greatest hit from the crunch. At the depth of

Tuesday

David Blackburn

Cameron’s ill-advised spat with Sir Humphrey

David Cameron’s assertion in his spring conference speech that his officials are “enemies of enterprise” has aggravated the Sir Humphreys of this world. Paul Waugh, Ben Brogan and James Kirkup all have excellent spin-offs from Sue Cameron’s account of the smouldering atmosphere at a recent meeting of permanent secretaries. And Iain Martin puts it succinctly on Twitter: ‘Duff politics attacking civil service, down the ages a lazy excuse for ministers not mastering their depts.’ Beyond Iain’s point about inept ministers, this incident also seems typical of Number 10’s frequently faulty communications strategy, which so exasperates departmental special advisors. Attacking senior civil servants is ‘courageous’ to say the least, especially when

David Blackburn

A 6 point guide to Hutton’s proposals

The future of the public sector has become a tale of two Huttons. Last week, John Hutton disclosed his pension plans and today Will Hutton’s submitted his final recommendations on pay. He makes six substantial points. 1). He has resisted calls to link senior public sector pay with the Prime Minister’s. He told broadcasters this morning: “I think the Prime Minister’s is a completely arbitrary salary. He took a pay cut in the first place and there’s no shortage of people coming forward to be Prime Minister. There’s no problem of recruiting and retaining a Prime Minister. If you’re trying to hire someone to do child protection services in Haringey…

Peter Hoskin

Another hurdle for Lansley’s health reforms

And so it came to pass. After sniping at Andrew Lansley’s health reforms from the day they were announced — at one point describing them as a “slash and burn approach” — the British Medical Association has today voted to call on the Health Secretary to withdraw his Bill entirely. The speech that the BMA Council Chairman, Hamish Meldrum delivered this morning captures the tenor of their opposition: “…what we have is an often contradictory set of proposals, driven by ideology rather than evidence, enshrined in ill-thought-through legislation and implemented in a rush during a major economic downturn.” So what to make of it all? Normally, another “union opposes coalition”

Peter Hoskin

The pace of the schools revolution

What a difference a year makes. When Michael Gove spoke at a Spectator conference on schools reform twelve months ago, his policy ideas were just that: ideas, to be deployed should the Tories reach government. Today, at a follow-up conference, they are being put into practice in the fiery crucible of state — and doing quite well, at that. As tweeted by Andrew Neil, Gove has announced that the number of academies — existing state schools that have seized on the independence being offered to them — now stands at 465. That’s some way up on the 203 academies there were last year. And it’s even a significant rise on

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Another call for an in/out referendum

In or out? — that is the question that a new cross-party campaign would have put to the British people. And so they’re launching their “People’s Pledge” today. The idea is that voters would promise to support only those parliamentary candidates who back a referendum on our membership of the EU. The signatures will then be enumerated, presented on a website, and — it is hoped — shock Westminster into delivering the referendum itself. At the very least, it might persuade some candidates to face up to, and meet, the tide of public opinion on Europe. It seems we’ve been here, or somewhere like it, before now. Daniel Hannan, for

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

Clegg defines his liberalism

I do feel for Nick Clegg. He’s taken an oppositionalist party into government, and they hate it. He is politically and psychologically prepared for what goes with power; grassroots LibDems less so. And this brings problems. Yesterday, he was complaining that his party is “too male and too pale”; but his main problem is that there are too few of any. At the peak of Cleggmania, the Lib Dem had 30 per cent of the the vote. Now it’s 10 per cent in the polls. If things continue at this rate, he won’t need a ‘ring of steel’ for his next conference: a phone box will suffice. So, what can