Snp

Talk to senior Labour figures about the polls that show them losing 30 or more seats in Scotland, and they say two things. The first is that these polls have been taken at the worst possible moment for them, just after the bitter resignation of the Scottish Labour leader. The second is that when it comes to a UK general election, Scottish voters will—however reluctantly—accept that it is a choice between Labour and the Tories.   But the aftermath of the referendum means that this second point will not apply as strongly as usual. Having campaigned together against independence, Labour and the Tories do not look as dramatically different as

Grotesque. Unbelievable. Bizarre. Unprecedented. Today’s Ipsos-Mori opinion poll is the most astonishing survey of Scottish political opinion in living memory. Perhaps, even, the most remarkable survey of all time. It is, of course, a snapshot not a prediction. The actual election will not produce anything like these numbers. I don’t believe the SNP will win 52% of the Scottish vote in May. I don’t believe the Labour party will take 23% of votes. And I don’t actually believe the Conservatives will only be supported by 10% of voters. Still, there is something happening in Scotland right now. The electorate is volatile. Just a month ago Survation reported Labour’s support (amongst decided voters) at

[audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_30_Oct_2014_v4.mp3″ title=”James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman discuss Jim Murphy” startat=1010] Listen [/audioplayer]There should, by rights, have been a stampede of candidates to replace Johann Lamont as the leader of the Scottish Labour party. With the new powers promised to Holyrood, the Scottish First Minister promises to be a more powerful figure than most of the Cabinet. Only the holders of the great offices of state will be more influential than the occupant of Bute House. Labour might well trail the SNP by a large margin in the Holyrood polls, but their position is by no means hopeless. But since she decided to step down, there was silence. After days

At the risk of intruding into someone else’s calamity, if you can’t enjoy this what can you enjoy? By this I mean, of course, Scottish Labour’s meltdown. (Suggestions the party is not actually an iced lollipop should not be taken too seriously.) The thing to remember about Labour in Scotland is they’ve never been as popular as they like to think. They’ve only ever been the largest minority. A large and zombified minority, to be sure, but a minority nonetheless. They never – ever – spoke for a majority of Scots. They only claimed to. They still do. That’s the astonishing thing. They are the people’s army, the political will

Heywood and Middleton is a far worse result for Labour than for the Tories: we can agree on that, surely. Clacton is grim for Dave, of course, but I’m interested in what happens in the rotten Labour heartlands. Here’s something else for Ed Miliband to worry about: the SNP. Loathsome party, humiliated last month, but so angry and looking for revenge. The turnout in Scotland come the general election will surely be higher than usual. And much of it will be made up of occasional voters energised by the referendum. The SNP won’t take safe Labour seats: they’re hugely behind – we’re talking 20-point margins. But the electorate has changed. Peter Kellner

George Osborne will give his speech in a few minutes, and we’ll analyse it straight after. But I’d like to pick up on something he said this morning on Radio 4. It was an aside, a claim that For the first time in my lifetime, the march of the separatists in Scotland has been reversed This is, of course, not quite true – the SNP have been pushed into reverse many times. Depressingly they tend to bounce back, stronger than ever. After devolution, it looked as if their fox had been shot. After Salmond quit the first time, they looked like a quaint irrelevance. Yet just eleven days ago the ‘yes’ campaign won 45pc

David Mundell, MP for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, is not often granted much respect. He is not a natural television performer, which does not help. He is a Scottish Conservative, which does not help either. But give him this: he predicted that the Scottish National Party would enjoy a surge of new members if Scotland voted No to independence. But what a surge it has been. The SNP has doubled its membership in a week. More than doubled it, in fact. The party now claims more than 60,000 paid-up members. To put this into some perspective, that’s akin to a UK-wide party having 600,000 members. The combined membership of the

Alex Salmond has proved himself the most effective party leader in Europe, let alone Britain. He has just run a terrifyingly effective campaign, perhaps the best I will ever witness. I could not disagree more with his aims, but to me that makes his achievement all the more remarkable. I doubt any other politician could have sold such a bad idea to 45 per cent of Scots. He ran rings around his opponents, outsmarting them all. He was so damn infuriating because he was so damn good: able to use humour, anger, audacity and caution when each was required. I can’t think of many politicians with his versatility. As a unionist, I’m delighted that the sharpest