James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.
Munira Mirza, the Downing Street head of policy, has resigned over Boris Johnson’s Jimmy Savile attack on Keir Starmer. Mirza, who has worked with Johnson for 14 years and who he named as one of the five women who have most inspired him, quit this afternoon. In a letter to the Prime Minister, Mirza writes:
Tory MPs only have one topic of conversation: the fate of Boris Johnson. They huddle together in offices in Portcullis House, comparing notes, assessing the Prime Minister’s survival prospects. At the time of writing, there is a sense in Westminster that attempts to oust Johnson have been delayed; that the danger for him will flare
Tobias Ellwood, the chair of the defence select committee, has this morning announced that he is sending a letter to the 1922 chairman calling for a no confidence vote in Boris Johnson. In a way this is not a surprise: Johnson cut Ellwood from the government when he became Prime Minister and the two are temperamentally
Those Tory MPs who want to oust Boris Johnson are not a single group. They come from all wings of the party and all intakes and would not agree on who should succeed him. This means there is no single view among them about the best way to proceed. But one of the most influential
It is Tory MPs who hold Boris Johnson’s fate in their hands. The key question now is how do those Tories who said that they were waiting for the Sue Gray report react to this update. On the one hand, it is clearly not her report. She writes that the police investigation means that ‘it
‘I can’t put into words how awful this is’ remarks one Tory MP. The party is split not on the kind of policy issue that people can debate but on the question of one man: the Prime Minister. Neither side is finding this struggle rewarding. The Johnson loyalists feel that they spend all day trying
Jacob Rees-Mogg is now arguing that the UK system has become so presidential that a new prime minister would feel obliged to call an election. The message to Tory MPs is clear: depose Boris Johnson and you’ll be going to the country in months — and do you really want to do that given the
The Metropolitan Police’s decision to investigate lockdown parties undoubtedly makes things more serious for Downing Street. It is now harder to argue, as some supporters of Boris Johnson had begun to do privately, that these matters are fundamentally too trivial to account for a Prime Minister departing if the police have been called in to
The Partygate drama is temporarily paused as Tory MPs wait for Sue Gray to deliver her report. But even once it is out, what happens to Boris Johnson and the Conservative party is far from clear. One Tory MP with a foot in both the rebel and loyalist camps predicts ‘trench warfare for several weeks’
Two years ago, Boris Johnson had British politics at his feet. He had won the largest Tory majority since Thatcher, broken the Brexit deadlock and forged a new electoral coalition. Yet Johnson now finds himself on the verge of a vote of no confidence by his own MPs, and this turnaround hasn’t been triggered by
An MP crossing the floor just before PMQs is the stuff of prime ministerial nightmares. But, oddly, Christian Wakeford’s defection might, in the very short term, have helped Boris Johnson. MPs hate defectors and so Tory MPs will unite in condemnation of Wakeford. His decision also makes it easier for Johnson’s allies to raise questions
Tory associations are about to become central to Boris Johnson’s fate. Even before last night’s Telegraph story revealing how a party was held in Downing Street the night before Prince Philip’s socially distanced funeral, several Tory MPs told me that their associations were putting pressure on them to be more critical of the Prime Minister.
Whips are made for leadership crises. They are a party leader’s early warning system; they can sniff out plots before they get going. So it is, as I report in this week’s magazine, far from ideal for Boris Johnson that relations between him and the whips office remain strained. The problem dates back to the Owen Paterson
Throughout his political career, Boris Johnson has defied all odds. He has been defeated, written off, mocked. At one stage, he left the House of Commons completely. Yet no matter how down-and-out he has looked, how bleak his prospects have appeared, he has always managed to recover. His party chose him as leader partly for
Talking to Tory MPs this morning, it is clear that the mood today is even worse than yesterday. Even one of those MPs closest to Boris Johnson thinks that it is now 50/50 whether enough letters go in to force a no confidence vote. Ironically, the improving Covid numbers are changing the calculus for some
In recent years, the notion of cabinet government has been a polite fiction. In theory, the prime minister is merely the first among equals when he meets his secretaries of state. In practice, they all owe their position to No. 10 and usually do what they’re told. The situation was summed up by an old
The first PMQs of the year gave us a preview of the political debate we’ll be having for the next few months. Labour went after the government on inflation. Angela Rayner asked Boris Johnson why he had dismissed fears over it as unfounded back in October: Johnson denied he had said it — which is an
Keir Starmer is not a lucky politician. He has again been forced into self isolation after testing positive for Covid, which means he misses the first PMQs of the year. This is the Labour leader’s sixth period of self-isolation. So, instead it will be Rayner versus Johnson at PMQs at the later time of 3
Boris Johnson’s premiership has been plunged into further crisis tonight by the resignation of the Brexit minister Lord Frost. Frost has, according to the Mail on Sunday, quit over the political direction of the government, citing Plan B, tax rises and net zero. His decision to go makes Johnson more vulnerable than he has been at
The Tory defeat in North Shropshire is a far worse result for the party and Boris Johnson than their loss in Chesham and Amersham. Chesham and Amersham could be put down to local anger about HS2 and disquiet over planning reform. It was also a seat ripe for tactical voting given it had voted Remain
