Kate Andrews is economics editor of The Spectator
The economy grew by 0.1 per cent in February: not much to celebrate on its own but the small uptick in GDP all but confirms that the UK is leaving its recession in 2023. February wasn’t a booming month: services output only grew by 0.1 per cent, with transportation and storage services contributing the most
The NHS England waiting list has fallen for a fifth month in a row: to 7.54 million in February, down from 7.58 million in January. Since September last year, the overall waiting list has fallen by nearly 200,000 treatments, the ‘biggest five-month fall…in over ten years outside of the pandemic’ according to the Department of
It was extremely optimistic to think the UK could revise its way out of recession. After the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported GDP figures for Q4 last year showing a 0.3 per cent economic contraction between October and December, a recession seemed set in stone. Today the ONS reports no revisions to the figures.
Rishi Sunak doesn’t speak much about his five priorities these days, apart from inflation, which ‘halved’ as promised. On NHS waiting lists, small boats, the economy and the public finances, the news hasn’t been nearly as positive – and people have noticed. Satisfaction with the National Health Service has hit its lowest point since records
The Bank of England has voted to keep rates at 5.25 per cent – but there are signs that a rate cut may not be far off. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 8-1 to hold the base rate. Yet there was a dovish shift in direction compared to the last meeting. In February, the MPC voted 6-3 to
Will Jeremy Hunt have scope to deliver more tax cuts before the next election? Tory MPs certainly hope so, as cuts to employee National Insurance in last year’s Autumn Statement and this month’s Budget have yet to move the polls. Something like an income tax cut, they think, would be preferable. But this morning’s update
Has Kate Middleton united America? For the past few days, we have been one nation under her spell. The Princess of Wales has dominated Google searches in the United States ever since Kensington Palace released that now-notorious doctored photo of her with her children for Mother’s Day. Her name search beat that of both ‘Donald
Inflation has slowed once again, to 3.4 per cent in the 12 months to February, down from 4 per cent in January. This takes the inflation rate to its lowest level in two and a half years, and keeps inflation on track for the Bank’s target of 2 per cent this spring. The fall in
Every year the Mais lecture, hosted by Bayes Business School, gives its speaker a chance to lay out their vision for the economy. It’s how we knew Rishi Sunak would prioritise fiscal prudence over tax cuts long before he entered Number 10. Last night it was Rachel Reeves’s turn. The message seemed to be: build up the
Is Britain’s economy ‘turning a corner’? Rishi Sunak thinks so, but convincing his fellow MPs and the public is going to be difficult. At the ‘SME Connect’ conference in Warwickshire this morning, the Prime Minister spoke about the ‘tough couple of years’ the country has been through, insisting the UK economy is now heading ‘in the right
A Judy Garland rendition, dancing nurses, a star lead: no spectacle is spared in Tim Price’s new play Nye, which tells the story of Aneurin (Nye) Bevan, the architect of the National Health Service. The drama opens with Bevan being cared for on an NHS ward, slipping in and out of consciousness, on the brink
Is the UK already out of recession? It’s a question that won’t be confirmed for months, but this morning’s update from the Office for National Statistics offers a positive hint that Britain’s economic contraction will be confined to 2023. According to the ONS, the economy grew by 0.2 per cent in January – thanks largely
Could Jeremy Hunt really abolish employee National Insurance (NI)? His additional 2p cut announced in yesterday’s Budget seems to be the start of what the Tories might offer up in their election manifesto. Hunt has now suggested the end goal would be to merge income tax with employee NI, helping to simplify the tax code.
‘We fight for every inch,’ declared Nikki Haley after she won her first primary in the District of Columbia last week. Her fight didn’t last long. The former governor of South Carolina managed to win one state primary on Super Tuesday, handing the presidential nomination to Donald Trump. Haley’s campaign is over – and with
Can the Tory party now credibly claim it is cutting taxes? That was the big mystery going into Jeremy Hunt’s pre-election Budget this afternoon, as so many of the policy measures had already been trailed. As expected, the Chancellor announced another 2p off employee National Insurance, following on from the 2p cut he announced in
We’ll know tomorrow afternoon what exactly Jeremy Hunt has included in his Budget, but reports this evening suggest we’re looking at another 2p cut to employee National Insurance: a move that is estimated to put £450 back in the pocket of the average worker, which Hunt will try to sell as a £900 tax cut,
February was a tough month for Jeremy Hunt, as he tried to roll back the tax cut promises that were made by himself and Rishi Sunak in January. The money simply did not materalise, despite the government borrowing less than expected in recent months. The rough £15 billion that independent forecasts now think the Chancellor has for
When Rishi Sunak made ‘stopping the boats’ one of his five priorities after entering No. 10, he ensured that immigration (legal and illegal) would become one of the big issues heading into an election. It seemed, for a while, that the government thought the emphasis on migration would work in its favour. It hasn’t exactly
Does Jeremy Hunt have the cash to spend on tax cuts in his spring Budget next week? That’s the billion pound question that the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) focused on during its pre-Budget briefing this morning, hosted by Director Paul Johnson and Deputy Director Carl Emmerson. As Ross Clark notes on Coffee House, the latest
The good news started with the revelation that last month had produced a surplus of £16.7 billion for the Treasury – double the surplus of the same month last year and a record-breaking amount (in nominal terms) since records began. This has boosted hopes that the Chancellor will be able to offer up more tax
