Kate Andrews is economics editor of The Spectator
What sent the economy into recession at the end of last year? The government blames higher interest rates, ushered in by the Bank of England. The Bank in turn points the finger at shocks such as Russia’s war against Ukraine. Both are plausible answers – and certainly part of the equation. But the Office for
Jeremy Hunt needed some good news this morning, when the monthly public sector finance update was released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Having promised meaningful tax cuts last month – and then rowed back expectations this month – the Chancellor was hoping for a notable surplus and reduction in borrowing to give himself a bit
The Tories have had a tax problem for quite some time. But news of a recession at the end of last year has made matters much worse. It has been an uncomfortable position, for Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt, to defend the Conservative party taking the tax burden to a post-war high. The political defence
At the start of last year Rishi Sunak made the promise to ‘get the economy growing’ one of his five major pledges. Today he is confronted with headlines that the UK fell into recession at the end of last year, as the Office for National Statistics reported this morning that the economy contracted by 0.3 per cent
The government had been facing two economic challenges this week, ahead of the by-elections in Kingswood and Wellingborough: the publication of the latest inflation figures and the economic growth figures for the last quarter of 2023. It has just about survived the first challenge. This morning’s update from the Office for National Statistics shows the inflation rate
Has the Labour market cooled down enough for the Bank of England to change its mind on interest rates? Almost certainly not, based on the latest data from the Office for National Statistics, out this morning. The reintroduction of the Labour Force Survey data, which had to be suspended temporarily due to poor and limited feedback, has
What will Labour’s flagship promise be going into the next election? There’s a policy vacancy, now that the party plans to ditch its pledge to spend £28 billion a year on green investment. This is not your average U-turn. This has been Labour’s big offering for more than two years. Yet today, Keir Starmer will ditch
The Bank of England (BoE) has held interest rates at 5.25 per cent for the fourth time in a row. This is no big surprise: with inflation ticking back up slightly on the year to December (rising to 4 per cent) – continued trade disruption in the Red Sea last month is expected to have some impact
Rishi Sunak stood glowering over a school table and listed, with disdain, the flavours of the vapes that lay on the table in front of him. ‘Grapefruit,’ the Prime Minister declared. ‘Bubblegum. Strawberry. Berry Burst.’ Pupils at Haughton Academy were then invited to express their own disgust: ‘Bright colours,’ observed one student. ‘Appealing to younger
On the face of it, this morning’s public sector finance update is good news. The government borrowed £7.8 billion in December last year. This is well below the £11 billion that economists had expected and almost half the £14 billion last forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). These are the lowest borrowing figures for December
More tax cuts are on their way, according to the both the Prime Minister and Chancellor who have written comment pieces in The Sun on Sunday and The Mail on Sunday respectively to indicate their intentions ahead of the upcoming March Budget. This is interesting because their published plans suggest a rise in taxes, to levels not seen in
The Tory party’s plan to further cut taxes in the Spring Budget is not exactly a secret. Still, Jeremy Hunt’s suggestion at Davos that they are indeed coming has sparked imaginations – while his party continues to debate internally where these tax cuts should land. Speaking on a panel at the World Economic Forum’s conference
Each year the World Economic Forum’s conference in Davos, Switzerland draws the attention of conspiracy theorists. In truth, nothing is happening in the ski town that doesn’t happen every other day of the year: it’s the world’s most senior politicians and biggest business leaders working together to implement their vision for the future. The only
Inflation rose to 4 per cent on the year to December, up slightly from 3.9 per cent the previous month. It’s the first time the inflation rate has increased for almost a year – an unexpected uptick, as the consensus was for the rate to slow once more, down to 3.8 per cent. This is not the
The Iowa contest tends not to select the Republican nominee. In 2016 Texas Senator Ted Cruz denied Donald Trump his first win by taking home the caucus prize with 28 per cent of the vote. In 2012, Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum just edged out eventual nominee Mitt Romney. In 2008, presidential nominee John McCain didn’t
November is proving to have been a lucky month in Britain. Inflation slowed significantly: from 4.6 per cent on the year in October down to 3.9 per cent on the year in November (a bigger fall than anyone predicted). Not only that: this morning we learned from the Office for National Statistics that the economy
When will inflation return to the target rate? According to its latest forecasts, the Bank of England isn’t expecting inflation to slow to 2 per cent until 2025. But could this happen much sooner? Several independent forecasters are growing in confidence that inflation could get down to 2 per cent this spring, rather than next
Any remaining question about who NHS strikes are supposed to benefit has been put to rest this week. Industrial action is needed, the British Medical Association’s website reads, ‘For the benefit of all junior doctors and for the benefit of all patients’ – and also, of course, to ‘protect the NHS’. Yet the union has selected the
Has the immigration U-turn already begun? When Home Secretary James Cleverly announced his overhaul of the legal migration system at the start of the month, it included a big crackdown on the family visa route into the UK. The Minimum Income Requirement (MIR) for a British citizen wanting to bring their foreign spouse to the UK was
When I go home to America next week for Christmas, I’ll go to church – the one my family and I used to attend every Sunday, a few towns over. I visit intermittently throughout the year when I’m back home, but I always go on Christmas Eve. The routine is the same: I sit quietly
