Michael Simmons is The Spectator's economics editor
Rachel Reeves has wanted to downplay the significance of the Spring Statement this afternoon. But with every leaked proposal and briefing, the statement feels increasingly like a full-blown Budget. Soaring borrowing costs, and a growth forecast set to be slashed in half, have wiped out the Chancellor’s £10 billion headroom against her ‘ironclad’ fiscal rules.
Five years ago this weekend, the nation was plunged into what was expected to be a three-week lockdown. Weeks turned into months and years, lives were upended, and society was reshaped. But with the Covid inquiry rumbling on and the threat of a new pandemic ever present, it is worth reflecting on what happened. That’s
Rachel Reeves is having to borrow more and more money to keep Britain’s show on the road. Figures on the public finances, published this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), show that in the financial year to February we borrowed over £132 billion. That is nearly £15 billion more than at the same
The Bank of England has held interest rates at 4.5 per cent. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted eight to one to hold the base rate at its current level after reducing it by 0.25 percentage points six weeks ago. Markets and pundits had expected the decision, despite figures last week revealing the economy had
The state is bigger than ever. The number of workers employed in central government has hit 4 million for the first time. Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show employment in the public sector hit 6.14 million in December, up 53,000 in a year. Employment in central government hit a record
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This week: why is economic growth eluding Labour? ‘Growing pains’ declares The Spectator’s cover image this week, as our political editor Katy Balls, our new economics editor Michael Simmons, and George Osborne’s former chief of staff Rupert Harrison analyse the fiscal problems facing the Chancellor. ‘Dominic Cummings may have left Whitehall,’ write Katy and Michael,
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This afternoon we had Liz Kendall’s long-awaited address in the Commons on Labour’s plans for welfare reform. The prospect of £5 billion worth of cuts to welfare has split the party in two, with fears of a rebellion growing over the weekend and into this week. Her announcement was a mixed bag, including: restricting eligibility
In more bad news for Rachel Reeves as the Chancellor prepares for next week’s Spring Statement, the OECD has downgraded Britain’s growth prospects. The organisation forecast the UK’s economy to grow 1.4 per cent this year and then just 1.2 per cent next year – compared with the 1.7 per cent and 1. 3 per
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New figures from the Office for National Statistics show the UK economy unexpectedly shrunk by 0.1% in January. This comes only a few weeks after the Chancellor’s pro-growth speech, and a fortnight ahead of her Spring Statement. Just how much pressure is Rachel Reeves under? And how likely is it that Labour will change their
The economy shrank by 0.1 per cent in January according to figures just published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The news will come as a disappointing shock to Rachel Reeves after most economists had predicted the year to have started with growth. In December the economy had grown by 0.4 per cent, but a fall
Markets are not enjoying Donald Trump’s tariffs. Some 125 days have passed since his second election victory and the S&P 500 is on a clear downward trajectory thanks to Trump’s tariff policies and other poor US economic data. After the same number of days following Biden’s election, the S&P was up 13 per cent; for
Donald Trump has refused to rule out an American recession. He ‘hates to predict things like this’, he said yesterday. When asked if a downturn was coming this year, the President responded that a ‘period of transition’ was on the cards. On Thursday last week the Atlanta Fed’s GDP ‘nowcast’ model was forecasting that America’s
The welfare bill currently unsustainably stands at £314 billion. It is forecast to reach nearly £380 billion by the end of the decade. Rumoured Labour cuts, set to be announced as part of the Spring Statement on 26 March, have just been reported by ITV News and include plans for £6 billion of welfare cuts.
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On this week’s Spectator Out Loud: Having returned from Washington D.C., Harry Cole reads his diary for the week (1:16); Zoe Strimpel reports on the Gen Z fliers obsessed with maximalising their air miles (5:37); Michael Simmons argues that Scotland is the worst when it comes to government waste (12:00); reviewing Quentin Skinner’s Liberty as Independence, Nigel
No country in the UK receives more public money per head than Scotland. An extra £2,200 is spent on every person living there than in England – and £1,900 more than the UK average. Yet public services north of the border are falling apart. Take education. Scotland spends more per pupil than anywhere else –
‘He was bad on trade, very bad on trade,’ said Donald Trump ‘with due respect’ to Ronald Reagan in a broadcast from the White House. As the President went on, the Fox News coverage included a ‘Dow Watch’ ticker, which showed the markets in freefall. Trump was speaking to confirm that 25 per cent tariffs
The number of young people not doing anything with their lives has hit its highest level in 11 years. Figures released this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 16- to 24-year-olds not in education, employment or training – so-called NEETs – show that the number has reached just under one million in
Average gas and electricity bills will rise by £111 a year in April after the regulator Ofgem announced an increase to the energy price cap. The 6.4 per cent hike means the average dual-fuel household bill will hit £1,849 annually. The rise is more than anticipated, with analysts at Cornwall Insight predicting that bills would
When I was at Edinburgh University a decade ago, a girl with a thick Surrey accent stopped me as I walked back to my room in halls. ‘Rah, have you been to the reeling society?’ she asked. ‘What makes you think that?’ I replied. ‘You’ve acquired a slight limp.’ ‘It’s the cerebral palsy, luv.’ They’re
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On this week’s Spectator Out Loud: Hugh Schofield asks why there is no campaign to free the novelist Boualem Sansal (1:26); The Spectator’s arts editor, Igor Toronyi-Lalic, reacts to the magazine’s campaign against frivolous funding and, continuing the campaign, Michael Simmons wonders if Britain is funding organisations that wish us harm (8:00); Lisa Haseldine reflects on
