The final polls are rolling in ahead of voters going to the polls tomorrow. On Tuesday night, Survation published its last MRP poll of the campaign, suggesting the Tories could be left with a mere 64 Tory MPs – and Labour on 484. So, perhaps by comparison tonight’s YouGov poll will make for plesant reading in Conservative Campaign Headquarters.
It has the Tories on their worst ever result – but still triple figures – with 102 MPs. Meanwhile, Labour win 431 seats, the Lib Dems a record 72 and Reform three seats, including Nigel Farage’s seat of Clacton. Taken together, Labour would win a majority of 212 – the biggest for any political party since 1832. Meanwhile, the Tories would suffer their worst ever election result.
Who would go? Senior Tories to face the axe in this scenario include Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps, Gillian Keegan, Lucy Frazer, Greg Hands, Steve Baker and Johnny Mercer. When it comes to Scotland, the SNP would be reduced to 18 seats and the Scottish Labour resurgence would see them the largest party on 32.
The poll is far from an outlier. If anything, it is more favourable than many. Of course MRP polls take time so the Tories will hope that Reform’s recent stalling in the polls might mean the result tomorrow is more favourable. But ultimately no-one knows. As one Tory aide puts it: ‘The result could be 50 it could be 150 it could be more – the margins are so tight.’ Plenty of campaigners say the feeling on the ground does not reflect the polls. In a day’s time we will find out who is right.
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