The names of the final four candidates left in the Tory leadership contest are in. Mel Stride has been eliminated from the contest, with just 16 MP backers. That leaves Robert Jenrick, who leads with 33 backers, Kemi Badenoch in second on 28 MPs and James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat who are tied in third place with 21 backers each. The four leadership hopefuls will now head to party conference where they will use the four-day event to try to prove to their parliamentary colleagues and the grassroots that they have what it takes to lead the party in opposition.
Stride’s exit was largely expected
Stride’s exit was largely expected. As I reported previously, the shadow work and pensions secretary’s decision to enter the race was met with scepticism by some of his parliamentary colleagues. There was little sign that he would do well with the membership, with one poll putting him on two per cent. Stride had hoped to opt for a David Cameron-style route to victory, using conference to build up a following. However, this will not be possible. Some in the party always viewed his campaign as more to position for shadow chancellor than leader (something Stride’s supporters dispute). That means job offers could comes his way as the remaining candidates battle to win over his backers, now Stride is out of the race.
Tom Tugendhat has made a strong recovery after a shaky first round, when he had only one more backer than Stride. Now he is tied with Cleverly. Both candidates are viewed to be fishing in a similar pool. The fact that neither is ahead means that the fight is on for each to say they are best placed to be the centrist candidate in the race. There is a path for one of them to get to the final two if they can win the other’s backers, namely Stride’s 16 supporters – and the man himself.
Without that, however, the final two could come down to the two candidates on the right of the party: Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch. Badenoch is just five MP backers behind Jenrick, who retains his lead. While Jenrick supporters believe they could fare better with winning over MPs from other camps, this result will come as some relief to her team after rival camps suggest Cleverly might even overtake her in this round. However, given on current membership polling Badenoch would beat any of the remaining candidates in a final, all camps have an incentive to try to keep her off the ballot.
The contest will now move to party conference where each candidate will have an incentive to show that they land well with the membership. Given Jenrick’s lead, Badenoch’s best tactic may be to prove to her parliamentary colleagues the level of support she has with the grassroots. That could make them think twice about stopping the membership from having a say on her candidacy. As things stand the race remains competitive – while Jenrick is the bookies’ favourite, conference will be decisive in determining how the contest pans out.
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