It’s crunch day in the Tory leadership contest. This afternoon, Tory MPs will vote in the final knock-out round of the contest. It means one of James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick will be eliminated and the final two will be voted on by the Conservative membership, with a result announced in early November. The result is due at 3.30 p.m. and it’s fair to say that few in the party are certain who will make the final two. After James Cleverly stormed ahead with 39 votes on Tuesday, his place looks likely, barring a big upset. Cleverly – who is viewed as being in the centre of the party – is should be well placed to take votes from Tom Tugendhat’s base, after he was eliminated.
On the right, the competition today is between Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch. Jenrick came second on Tuesday but by just one vote – he received 31 votes to Badenoch’s 30. What’s more, Jenrick appeared to lose momentum after he lost two votes from his last showing before party conference. It means there is now a battle between the two campaigns to get their candidates over the line. Both are pulling in endorsements. Jenrick has been endorsed by one of Tugendhat’s backers, Nick Timothy. A member of the 2024 intake, Timothy previously worked as Theresa May’s chief of staff and is seen as a credible voice on tackling immigration. Meanwhile, Badenoch has won backing from Iain Duncan Smith, the former cabinet minister. He says he is supporting Badenoch on the grounds that she is the candidate most ‘capable of returning the party to its central values and core beliefs.’
So, how will this shake out? Both Badenoch and Jenrick sit to the right of Cleverly. So Tory MPs wishing for a more right leaning candidate need to decide who they believe has the best chance of beating Cleverly with the membership. Badenoch has long polled best with the membership – but her lead has been reduced as the contest has gone on. It means that some think her numbers could fall again in the membership stage, and that she could be beatable after all. Jenrick has had mixed polling – with some surveys saying he could beat Cleverly, but more recent polling after conference suggesting Cleverly now has the edge. Badenoch’s camp are trying to land the message that she is the best placed to beat Cleverly, while Jenrick supporters are arguing Badenoch is too much of a live wire to put into the final two and could hand it to the former foreign secretary. Whichever two make it later today, the contest will remain competitive – this race is still far from a done deal.
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