Every morning in Conservative Campaign Headquarters, Tory aides kickstart the day by blasting out Elvis Presley’s ‘a little less conversation’ on the speakers. The song – which includes the lyrics ‘A little more bite and a little less bark / A little less fight and a little more spark’ – has quickly become the anthem of the Tory campaign. ‘I know the lyrics off by heart,’ says one sleep deprived staffer.
Yet more than halfway into the election, there is little sign that the campaign is cutting through in the way strategists had hoped. The most optimistic one aide working on the campaign can be is ‘it has to get better in the next three weeks as it can’t bet much worse’. The polls continue to spell doom for the Tories – with an MRP Survation poll in the Sunday Times suggesting the Tories will be reduced to 72 MPs and Starmer will cruise to power with a 262-seat majority. It means the slight drop in Labour support since the campaign began is unlikely to be keeping Starmer’s team awake at night.
Sunak has no plans to change tack and have a drastic campaign shake-up
This week, expect both main parties to return to their core themes of the economy as they seek to focus voters’ minds on the choice at the election. On Wednesday, new inflation figures come out and then on Thursday, the Bank of England will announce its latest interest rate decision. There is little expectation of a cut, though markets were anticipating one in late summer before the election was called. What’s more, now the election has been called, the Bank of England won’t want to get anywhere near politics.
But Labour aides still see an opportunity here to have a conversation on the economy. Expect shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves to be out and about this week pushing the line that talk from the Tories of an improving economy is tone deaf and talking of her own plans for growth. With the manifesto out the way, the view of Team Starmer is that it is now on Starmer and Reeves to get out there and sell to voters the idea that economic growth is possible under their plans.
As for the Tories, Sunak has no plans to change tack and have a drastic campaign shake-up – despite the lack of progress so far. Expect the Prime Minister to sharpen up his attack lines this week as his party doubles down on its tax attacks against Labour and tries to dissuade voters from backing Nigel Farage’s Reform party.
The message will be that with the manifestos out the way, all cards are on the table from the Labour and the Tories – and there are plenty of questions remaining for Starmer’s party on tax. Despite heavy criticism of the figure, Sunak will keep warning of £2,000 of tax rises for households if Starmer wins. This, of course, is not a new line – but the Tories hope to use the coming week to focus the attention on Labour. That means a little less conversation about the Conservatives’ own plans or policies – and instead an attempt to make Labour fill the silence by revealing more of their own. They will then try to limit the Reform vote by arguing any votes for Farage’s party will lead to a larger Labour majority – and a government that will do the opposite of Reform voters want. This is how the party hopes to limit losses between now and polling day. It’s a tough ask.
A version of this blog appeared in the Election Insider email – sign up to Katy Balls’s subscriber-only Sunday newsletter here.
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