Conservative party conference is underway. The conference centre in Birmingham is covered in photos of the four remaining leadership hopefuls and each campaign team is handing out stash – including Tugend-Tats (temporary tattoos). Already there are signs of friction. I understand some of the candidates were surprised on check-in at the conference hotel to discover that they had been put on the same corridor as their rivals. Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat and Robert Jenrick were all put in rooms along from one another. ‘The walls are paper thin so it’s a nightmare for speech prep,’ says one campaign member. Since then, I hear some of the candidates have been moved to more discreet locations.
In truth, the contest is not yet a two-horse race
It’s just as well – as one day into conference, tensions are rising between the four camps. The quad kicked off the conference with an intensive media round – with Kemi Badenoch sparking a row over her comments in relation to a question on maternity pay. Badenoch appeared to say that maternity pay is ‘excessive’. However, she has since said that her comments on Times Radio were misquoted – including by her leadership rivals who were quick to distance themselves from her comments. Her supporters have since accused Jenrick of aggressive tactics stoking a row. The problem for Badenoch is the whole row is adding to concerns from some MPs that while Badenoch has a knack at cutting through, she is also a live wire.
So far, the race is largely seen as Badenoch vs Jenrick – as is evidenced by the fact it was just these two candidates who appeared on the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg show on Sunday. Yet in truth the contest is not yet a two-horse race and there is a chance that the final two looks rather different. It’s not just that Badenoch has had a tricky start to conference and needs to get back on track. Jenrick’s team are confident that he has the numbers to reach the final two and this is the general view amongst the teams. So the race is on for the second spot. For now Badenoch has the second highest number of MP backers – but this could change. While much of the media focus is on Badenoch and Jenrick, the quieter but equally important contest to watch over the next few days is James Cleverly vs Tom Tugendhat. Both Cleverly and Tugendhat drew on MP nominations in the last parliamentary round which means it’s hard to know which candidate has the upper hand. The candidate who can use the next few days to show they have the momentum has a chance of getting to the final two.
When MPs return to the Commons after conference, there are the two final knock out rounds, taking place over two days. Barring some unexpected event, the first round will see either Cleverly or Tugendhat knocked out – this is the expectation of the various campaign teams. The one who survives then has a late night ahead calling all of the fallen candidate’s supporters and pleading with them to now get behind them – as they are more to the centre than Badenoch or Jenrick. If they can succeed, then there is a chance that Badenoch is edged out in the final round. This is the fear of her supporters and why, as I reported in this week’s cover piece, the message from Badenoch at this conference is to give the members a chance to vote for her and avoid an MP stitch up. If Cleverly or Tugendhat can move the dial at this conference and demonstrate popularity with the membership, that task will become harder.
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