As Jeremy Hunt prepares for next month’s autumn statement, the question being asked among Tory MPs isn’t so much what will be in it (the view is the Spring Budget is the place for significant tax cuts) and instead how long Hunt will remain in post for. In the past few weeks there have been reports that Hunt could be moved in the reshuffle Sunak is planning before the end of the year.
Senior Tories are agitating for a change in No. 11. ‘Jeremy [Hunt] was more front-footed when he was health secretary,’ says a former cabinet member. ‘The election will be about the cost of living. We need a chancellor out there with enthusiasm [while being] focused on comms.’ The view is that Hunt goes against Sunak’s plans to pitch himself as change given how many Tory governments he has held senior roles in. It doesn’t help that there have also been reports (denied by his team) that Hunt is considering stepping down at the next election.
Hunt would not have been picked by Sunak for the role of chancellor in other circumstances
However, as I say in this week’s politics column, a new chancellor anytime soon may well be wishful thinking. The next shake-up is more likely to focus on the junior ranks, removing ministers who plan to step down at the next election or who need time to work on holding their seats. Now several papers over the weekend have also reported that Hunt is likely to stay put for the autumn statement and the spring budget.
It means if Sunak were to change chancellor, the time he would do so would be much closer to the election. It’s worth pointing out that Sunak never chose Hunt as chancellor, he inherited him from Liz Truss, who brought the former health secretary in after she sacked Kwasi Kwarteng in the hope it would appease the markets. Hunt did back Sunak in both leadership elections so they have a decent working relationship – but he would not have been picked by Sunak for the role in other circumstances. It means there has long been a live question of whether Sunak would change chancellor when the markets calmed.
So, if he does decide to go for it, who are the contenders? One rumour that’s been doing the rounds for a while now is that Sunak could cause a Labour upset by appointing a female politician to the role, thereby making it so the Tories brought in the first female chancellor in British history.
Given at Labour conference Rachel Reeves was introduced as the politician who would become the first female chancellor in history, such a move would be disappointing to Starmer’s party. ‘Rachel would not be happy,’ says one Labour figure of the prospect. The most likely candidate were Sunak to do so is Claire Coutinho, the new energy secretary, who has worked with Sunak in the Treasury previously and comes from a finance background. However, she has only just received a big promotion to cabinet – the first of her intake to make it there – so is unlikely to be moved anytime soon. While this scenario can’t be ruled out, it depends on many moving parts.
It follows that there are other candidates being talked up such as Oliver Dowden, Sunak’s deputy. The pair are very close. Others argue Grant Shapps would be a contender given he is both trusted by No. 10 and experienced. However, he has only just been made Defence Secretary. It means whatever Sunak decides, Hunt will be chancellor for some to come – so long as he doesn’t mind the ongoing speculation about his long term job prospects.
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