Keir Starmer’s prisons dilemma

Another month, another batch of prisoners released early. Today marks the release of the second tranch of offenders as part of the government’s plan to ease overcrowding in jails in England and Wales.

The 1,100 prisoners released on licence today have sentences of five years or more but will have spent just 40 per cent of their time behind the bars. However, ministers are keen to stress that the scheme excludes those convicted of terrorism, sex crimes or serious violence. The Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood has been out on the media round this morning attempting to get on the front foot. The line from the government is that they have been forced into this position as a result of Tory failures leading to a difficult inheritance for which drastic action is now required.

It’s true that the last government made the decision to run the system hot. What’s more, one of the factors behind Rishi Sunak’s decision to call a July election was concern about the prison system if he hung on until November (the date many of his MPs preferred for the election). However, the headlines are still difficult for the new Labour government – not least because of the reactions of the prisoners. For example, one such offender – Daniel Dowling-Brooks, a convicted armed kidnapper – shouted ‘big up Keir Starmer’ on being released early today from HMP Swaleside in Kent. Not quite the type of endorsement the Prime Minister is looking for.

Yet more difficult decisions beckon – including ones that could prove harder to pin on the Tories. Alongside the prisoner release, Mahmood has announced a sentencing review which will be led by the former justice secretary David Gauke. The former Conservative MP will be looking at ways to reduce prison overcrowding in the long term.

The focus of the review speaks to the fact that even with Labour’s plans to create more prison spaces, there is unlikely to be sufficient capacity to adopt a heavy ‘lock them up’ strategy in the future. Instead, the view from the Ministry of Justice is that a wider rethink is required as to who needs a custodial sentence, and in what cases could that make the situation – or chance of reoffending – worse.

None of this is an easy political sell. Among the options being discussed are ways to ‘expand the use of punishment outside of prison’ such as good behaviour credits to reduce sentences, sobriety tags and home detention curfews. Technology could also be used with watches and apps to help make sure offenders comply with the conditions imposed on them. The challenge is how to make sentences outside of prison still look like punishment to the average voter, rather than soft justice.