Putin calls up 300,000 reservists

While most attention has focused on Vladimir Putin’s repetition of nuclear threats in his speech this morning, the takeaway in Ukraine is different: conscription has begun. This is deeply controversial in Russia given the war’s high mortality rate, but after the rout in the Kharkiv region Putin is running out of options. After his speech, given at 9 a.m. Moscow time, Russia’s minister of defence Sergei Shoigu announced that 300,000 reservists will be called up. ‘We are now at war not just with Ukraine but with the collective West too’, he said.

Putin had referred to this in his speech. ‘The decree on partial mobilisation has been signed. Mobilisation activities will begin today, September 21.’ he said. ‘Citizens who are currently in reserve, especially those who have served in the army, will be subject to conscription.’ About 300,000 are understood to be in this category. Military service contracts will be valid until the end of ‘partial mobilisation’.

Estimates on Russian fatalities so far vary: Ukraine says 55,000 but in his speech this morning Shoigu put it at 5,937. The real number is likely greater than cumulative losses from the Soviet campaign in Afghanistan, which was a factor in the collapse of that regime. Recent investigations have shown that Russia has been drawing troops from the poorest parts of the country – mindful of the politically destabilising effect deaths have on Moscow or St Petersburg families.

This morning, Putin also repeated the plans for fake referendums in annexed territories in Ukraine: this isn’t new. Referendums had been planned for 11 September but that ended up being the day of Ukraine’s liberation of much of these territories. ‘The parliaments of the People’s Republics have asked Russia to support the referendums. We will do everything to secure them. We will support the decision that the people there will make.’

Yesterday the new date for referendums was set: between 23 and 27 September occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions are expected to ‘vote’ on joining Russia. The Moscow-appointed ‘senator of Crimea’ Olga Kovitidi said ‘Any military aggression by Ukraine after the announcement of the referendum results should be regarded as open aggression against the civilian population of Russia’. It will be followed by ‘severe punishment for all those responsible’, she added.

After Putin spoke, a youth opposition movement from St Petersburg, ‘Vesna’, called for an all-Russian protest against the mobilisation this evening at 7 p.m. Moscow time. Their announcement has already been viewed by 350 000 people in their Telegram channel. ‘The protest is just the beginning. We are sure that the decision on mobilisation could be the end for this government’, they wrote. Such protests are easy to demand from the sanctuary of foreign cities (Vesna’s leaders fled the country after Russian police opened a criminal case against them). Putin ended his address with the words ‘I believe in your support’. As he will know, conscription will place great strain on that support – which may express itself sooner rather than later.