While most attention has focused on Vladimir Putin’s repetition of nuclear threats in his speech this morning, the takeaway in Ukraine is different: conscription has begun. This is deeply controversial in Russia given the war’s high mortality rate, but after the rout in the Kharkiv region Putin is running out of options. After his speech, given at 9 a.m. Moscow time, Russia’s minister of defence Sergei Shoigu announced that 300,000 reservists will be called up. ‘We are now at war not just with Ukraine but with the collective West too’, he said.
Putin had referred to this in his speech. ‘The decree on partial mobilisation has been signed. Mobilisation activities will begin today, September 21.’ he said. ‘Citizens who are currently in reserve, especially those who have served in the army, will be subject to conscription.’ About 300,000 are understood to be in this category. Military service contracts will be valid until the end of ‘partial mobilisation’.
Estimates on Russian fatalities so far vary: Ukraine says 55,000 but in his speech this morning Shoigu put it at 5,937. The real number is likely greater than cumulative losses from the Soviet campaign in Afghanistan, which was a factor in the collapse of that regime. Recent investigations have shown that Russia has been drawing troops from the poorest parts of the country – mindful of the politically destabilising effect deaths have on Moscow or St Petersburg families.
This morning, Putin also repeated the plans for fake referendums in annexed territories in Ukraine: this isn’t new. Referendums had been planned for 11 September but that ended up being the day of Ukraine’s liberation of much of these territories.
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