There’s reason for cheer at Reform HQ this morning: Nigel Farage’s party is leading Labour in a YouGov voting intention poll for the first time. According to the poll, Reform UK leads on 25 points with Labour in second place on 24 per cent and the Conservatives in third on 21 per cent. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are on 14 per cent and the Greens on 9 per cent. While there have been a handful of polls to date putting Reform in the lead, they have so far been regarded as outliers. In response to the poll, Richard Tice, the deputy leader of Reform, said: ‘Much more to come as common sense policies welcomed to save Britain and make us better off’.
This poll will alarm both the Conservatives and Labour. The question: does it point to a long term shift in UK politics – or can it be dismissed as a blip? The problem for both main parties is there is clearly an opening for an insurgent party promising to stick it to both sides. After kicking out the Tories six months ago, voters have quickly turned against the new Labour government. In government, ministers and aides are trying to work out how they can respond to the anti-establishment sentiment in the country.
How do Labour become the disrupters not defenders of a bloated, misfiring status quo that never delivers? In a bid to answer this question, No. 10 is working closely with Labour Together to find effective attack lines against Farage's party. However, there's still a question as to how joined up the approach is. The Telegraph reports today that Rayner plans to create a council on Islamophobia and whether to bring in an official definition. 'I'm not sure this is the policy we need to take on Reform,' says a party figure.
Yet in the short term, this poll could cause the greatest anxiety to the Tory party. It fits into a trend of the Tories polling in third place. While it is early days for Kemi Badenoch's leadership of the party, the new Tory leader is under pressure to show she can take on Farage. The local elections in May are viewed as a crunch point for her leadership. Already there is an effort to try to lower expectations for the elections, with the Tory party chairman Nigel Huddleston telling the shadow cabinet last week that losses are expected, given most councils were last voted in at the high point of the post-pandemic Boris boom. Regardless, if the Tories suffer heavy losses and remain in third place in the polls, calls for some kind of electoral pact with Reform will grow louder.
Comments