After finally getting his Rwanda legislation through the Lords, Rishi Sunak is in Warsaw today to meet with Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. There, the Prime Minister is expected to announce that Britain will spend 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence by 2030. Previously the government line has been that the Tories will increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent ‘as soon as economic conditions allow’. The pledge would mean the UK would be committed to spend £70 billion more on core defence spending over seven years than it does currently.
The expected announcement comes after Sunak has faced criticism from his own side on the issue. Tory MPs have voiced disappointment over the absence of a big defence announcement in the spring budget. Soon after that, two of Sunak’s ministers used a LinkedIn post to say the UK ought to lead and invest at a ‘much greater pace’. In that time, Labour have been parking their tanks on the lawn – with Starmer recently using an interview to say a Labour government would raise spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP ‘as soon as resources allow’. It means this pledge would mean a dividing line with Starmer on the issue given the Labour leader has set no date.
In terms of where this puts the UK in terms of its role in Nato, an increase to 2.5 per cent would see the UK move to the top five on spending as a percentage of GDP – behind Estonia, Poland, the US and Greece. It also means that if German Chancellor Olaf Scholz – as reported – uses his meeting with Sunak in Germany on Wednesday to pressure the UK for assurances on defence spending, Sunak will have a strong response – particularly given Scholz’s Germany is currently committed to spending just 2 per cent.
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