The results in the local elections so far provide further evidence of the fractured nature of British politics. The Tories have done badly in London. They lost Barnet, which was widely expected. And they have also suffered defeats in Wandsworth and Westminster.
Labour have had some good results, taking Southampton from the Tories. But it is impossible to see these results as a sea change in favour of Labour. On the BBC’s numbers their vote share is only up one point on 2018, when these seats were last contested. John Curtice, the elections expert, says that these results would not guarantee that Labour would be the largest party in the next parliament.
Labour’s vote share is only up one point on 2018, when these seats were last contested
The low turnout in these elections suggest the public are hardly enthused by the choice in front of them. The fact that the Liberal Democrats and the Greens have done well suggests a certain amount of mid-term protest voting.
The Tories have been hit by a combination of cost of living and the fallout from Boris Johnson being fined for breaking his own Covid rules. Notably no new Tory MPs have – so far – called for Johnson to go.
Ultimately, I suspect that the government’s fortunes will be decided by how it handles the dire economic news coming down the track, just look at the Bank of England’s warnings yesterday as it raised interest rates. But the problem for the Tories is that there are no easy answers, either economically or politically, for the current combination of low growth and high inflation. What will worry the Tories is that rampant inflation is politically devastating for incumbents.
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