There are a lot of extremely able jump trainers in Britain but only a handful are really adept at successfully preparing a horse for a big target, such as a race at the Cheltenham Festival or one of the season’s most valuable handicaps. These are typically the contests in which the leading Irish trainers also enter their best horses and so they are fiercely competitive.
Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and Dan Skelton clearly all deserve a place on this ‘top target trainer’ list for winning so many top prizes, while the likes of Nigel Twiston-Davies, Venetia Williams and Jonjo O’Neill have also had more than their fair share of big-race success over the years.
However, there is one other handler who now unquestionably deserves the accolade of being a ‘top target trainer’ and that is Lambourn-based Jamie Snowden. Over the past 13 months, the genial Snowden has landed the Paddy Power Gold Cup with Ga Law, the Jack de Bromhead Mares Novices’ Hurdle with You Wear it Well and, as recently as last weekend, the Coral Gold Cup with Datsalrightgino.
I confidently predict that Snowden’s reputation as a leading training will continue to grow over the years ahead and I can see him landing some nice prizes for the rest of this season, given the strength of his string.
Indeed, I hope Snowden’s next big-race victory comes as soon as tomorrow when his charge COLONEL HARRY is just one of six runners to contest the Grade 1 Betfair Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown (1.50pm). Small-runner non-handicaps are not normally my ‘bag’, nor are odds of less than double figures, but I do think this six-year-old gelding has a huge chance of lifting the £45,000-plus prize for the winner.
Colonel Harry has a few pounds to find on official figures against some of his rivals but he is a course winner who will handles soft, even heavy, ground. Interestingly, in an interview earlier this season, Snowden said he hoped that Colonel Harry would turn out to be a better horse than Datsalrightgino. Given the Coral Gold Cup winner now has a lofty official rating of 159, there is no doubt that the trainer rates Colonel Harry extremely highly. I am sure the six-year-old gelding will be higher than his current rating of 137 given time.
This race has been the plan for Colonel Harry since he won on his seasonal debut at Chepstow a month ago. His chances also received a boost on Thursday when his regular pilot, Gavin Sheehan, overturned a 14-day ‘non trier’ ban so that he is now free to ride tomorrow (the day when the ban had been due to start).
The opposition is stiff and headed by JPR One, who unseated his jockey after the last fence when poised to win at Cheltenham last month. However, the suggestion is 2 points win Colonel Harry at 4-1 with bet365 and William Hill.
My money is already down for the BoyleSports Becher Chase tomorrow (Aintree 2.05pm) and the odds of both my tips have contracted significantly in price since I put them up. The presence of top-weight Coko Beach in the field is good news for The Big Breakaway, put up at each way at 25-1 four places, as is the booking of Harry Cobden for the ride.
However, Coko Beach’s presence means that Percussion, put up each way at 10-1 four places, will have to race from 6 lbs out of the handicap, which is far from ideal in a handicap as competitive as this one. Still, those who joined me with these bets are in a nice position.
A confession: I had my biggest bet of the season on the Tizzard horse after putting him up in my column a week ago since the big prices lasted all weekend. Win, lose or draw, that 25-1 price is great value.
Returning to Jamie Snowden, however, I also strongly fancy another of his horses in the Coral Welsh Grand National on December 27. SUPER SURVIVOR has clearly been targeted at this race for a whole year after winning a novices’ handicap chase at Chepstow on the same day as last year’s Welsh Grand National.
Not only does Super Survivor handle the course but he relishes soft ground, is a solid jumper and is a dour stayer. Super Survivor was available at 16-1 earlier in the week, but his price has, unfortunately, dipped because he was tipped by Tom Segal (Pricewise) in yesterday’s Racing Post. However, the race looks weaker than usual this year and so still back him each way 2 points win at the generally-available 8-1.
My final tip for this week is in the Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot on December 23. Harry Fry is another trainer whose talents I admire and he can also successfully target a horse at a big pot. I have no doubt that this race has been ALTOBELLI’s aim for some time and he had the perfect prep race for it at Ascot in early November when second to Knickerbockerglory. The third horse that day, Bad, franked the form with a big run at Newbury last weekend.
Fry also has a second talented hurdler entered in this tricky handicap hurdle in the shape of Gin Coco but he may not get the good ground that he needs to be at his best and, if it is very soft in a fortnight’s time, he will be saved for another day.
Fry, who knows his geese from his swans, pitched Altobelli into a Grade 1 contest at Aintree at the end of last season and, although he disappointed in that race after early mistakes, the trainer clearly regards him highly and believes he has a well-handicapped horse on his hands. Back Altobelli each way at 12-1 with William Hill, paying four places.
Finally, there is an intriguing race at Sandown this afternoon: the Betfair Esher Novices’ Chase (2.25pm) has attracted just four runners, including Paul Nicholls’ Stay Away Fay, who won the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March. However, I am hoping that Lucinda Russell’s Giovinco can topple the favourite in receipt of 3 lbs.
He is may not be worth backing today at odds of around 2-1 but I am on at odds of ten times that for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the Festival. So I will be watching this race today with great interest and hoping for a big run.
2023-4 jumps season
Pending:
2 points win Colonel Harry at 4-1 in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase.
1 point each way Percussion at 10-1 for the Becher Chase, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way The Big Breakaway at 25-1 for the Becher Chase, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Thunder Rock at 10-1 for the December Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way In Excelsis Deo at 10-1 for the December Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Iron Bridge at 16-1 for the Welsh Grand National, paying ¼ odds, four places.
2 points win Super Survivor at 8-1 for the Welsh Grand National.
1 point each way Giovinco at 20-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
Settled bets from last week:
2 points win Mahler Mission at 8-1 for the Coral Gold Cup. 2nd. – 2 points.
1 point each way Stumptown at 9-1, for the Coral Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, six places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2023-4 jump seasons to date: + 0.05 points.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1-point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).
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