The marriage debate is about probability, not stigma

Should the government subsidise married couples? Arguing about whether births outside wedlock lead to worse childhood outcomes, or whether broken homes and such outcomes both stem from some third factor, really depends on one’s worldview and which studies one chooses to ignore.

My own suspicion, based on the wisdom of the ages and what I read in the Daily Mail, is that social and personal problems are likely to be more prevalent on average among those who have children out of wedlock, which makes proving the case for marriage hard. In addition, the actual absence of a father on average makes a difference.

But how could this be proved except through a cruel social experiment where random members of society lost their fathers? In the United States a study of children whose fathers had died showed that this had little educational impact on white children but it did for black children; a curious result, but most white American children will grow up with adult males around, whether it’s uncles or the fathers of schoolmates, most of whom will be around.