The race to replace Rishi as Tory leader is about to begin

Who will lead the Conservative party in opposition? By Tory party conference, we should have the answer. After much debate about the rules and timing of the contest to succeed Rishi Sunak, a timetable is expected to be announced later this week when the party board meets. There are two options being discussed at present: one in which the contest finishes just before party conference, this year held in Birmingham at the end of September; and another whereby the contest is completed at the event. Under this second scenario, the final hustings could take place on the Sunday night, voting close on the Monday, a winner announced by the Tuesday and a speech from the new leader on the Wednesday morning.

As for the pace of whittling the various contenders down to a final two, there is talk of allowing the initial nominations before the summer recess. That would mean that anyone wanting to run would need to gather the required number of backers and then could spend their summer touring associations as they wished. No knock-out rounds are likely until September when MPs return to the House of Commons. It’s at this point that MPs could reduce the playing field down to the two candidates who would then be decided on by the membership.

While there has been some talk of cutting out the membership, this is unlikely – any such move would be met with strong resistance by a good number of MPs. ‘When the membership picked we got Boris, when MPs did we had our worst ever defeat,’ says one Tory MP.

So, who is likely to throw their hat in the ring? So far, no-one has put their head above the parapet. Instead, there has been plenty of positioning and media appearances from the likely candidates. Many of the would-be contenders have held back from announcing for fear of a backlash from their colleagues. The sense is that lots of MPs are still processing the scale of the loss so any individual trying to make it about themselves could fall out of favour fast. It’s why so many MPs have talked of the need to ‘go long’ and not rush. But this movement has been met with criticism in parts of the party. There are Tory MPs who fear that going without a new leader for months on end only helps Labour, as there will be no opposition on major events. There are also financial restraints that mean a very long contest would be difficult – and it also seems Rishi Sunak’s offer to stay on as an interim leader came with an expiry date. ‘I don’t think he wants to still be leader by Christmas,’ says an MP.

Once the rules have been announced, expect the candidates to start declaring. There can be a first mover advantage – so it is often appealing for those in the middle of the field. At present, the contest is seen as Kemi Badenoch’s to lose. She is topping membership polls. However, she would likely face competition from Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat and Suella Braverman. There are also likely to be some wildcard candidates who no one sees coming. Despite calls for non-aggression pacts, most in the party are braced for the contest to get vicious – and fast.