How long will the next Tory leader last? As I write in this week’s issue of The Spectator, it’s the question being asked in the shadow cabinet after no candidate managed to muster more than a third of parliamentary support. ‘It would have been healthier had one of them bombed’, says a shadow minister of the final rounds of the contest. It means parallels are being drawn between the 2024 contest and the 2001 leadership election where Michael Portillo, Iain Duncan Smith and Kenneth Clarke all had support of around a third of the MPs – and Portillo was knocked out by one vote. The eventual winner, Duncan Smith, was forced out in a confidence vote two years later.
As Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch battle it out as the final two to win over the membership, I understand steps are being taken to try to prevent history being repeated. Under the existing rules a new leader cannot be challenged for the first year.
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