When Kwasi Kwarteng sacked Tom Scholar as permanent secretary at the Treasury, it was taken as the clearest indication yet that he was determined to shake up the so-called Treasury orthodoxy. Unlike previous Tory governments, Liz Truss and her Chancellor would take on the economic consensus. Only one month in and they appear to be having second thoughts.
Scholar’s hasty departure was cited as one of several factors that contributed to the markets responding badly to the Chancellor’s not-so-mini-Budget. Now the government have announced Scholar’s successor: James Bowler, currently Permanent Secretary for the Department for International Trade (DIT). Bowler can’t exactly be described as an insurgent. He has plenty of Treasury experience, having previously worked there for more than 20 years. Announcing the news, Kwarteng said: ‘James has a proven track record of delivery and strong leadership, both of which will be vital as we drive towards our mission of igniting growth and raising living standards for everyone across the UK.’ The press release repeatedly refers to his Treasury experience – something that wasn’t seen as such a plus just a few weeks ago.
What’s more, Bowler was not the favourite to win the role. Instead, that was Antonia Romeo, the Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Justice. Romeo’s name had been widely reported as the frontrunner for the role, having worked with Liz Truss previously at the DIT and getting on well with Kwarteng. The indication from government figures up until late last week was that she was on course to be appointed. Given she had no prior experience working in the Treasury, her appointment would have been read as a break with the past – a sign that the Truss government was shaking things up.
So, why the change of heart? Ultimately Truss has changed tack and gone for the most risk-averse option – despite Romeo being Kwarteng’s preferred pick. Bowler has Treasury experience unlike Romeo, who has had a long career in the civil service and handled a number of senior briefs. When confronted with a difficult financial landscape, Truss has when push came to shove opted for the candidate best placed to send a signal to the markets and bring relevant expertise from day one.
It’s the second of two moves today that show the Truss government is changing tack when it comes to taking on the so-called Treasury orthodoxy. This morning Kwarteng confirmed that he would bring forward his ‘fiscal event’ where the OBR analysis of his measures will be published to 31 October – after previously insisting it would stay in November. While this can, as a whole, be taken as a climbdown, it’s worth noting that Truss has still appointed someone with whom she has some common ground. Bowler worked with Truss at the Treasury during her time as Philip Hammond’s deputy and briefly at International Trade. He was one of the few officials she got on with in the Treasury. It follows that while Truss has ultimately had to lean on the Treasury orthodoxy, at least it’s with someone she has a good personal relationship with.
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