Will Rachel Reeves hold her nerve over the winter fuel payment? That’s the suggestion inside government ahead of a Commons vote tomorrow on the proposed cut that will see only pensioners eligible for benefits receive the £300 payment. Already this morning, government sources have had to play down the idea that there could be a change in course after a Home Office minister appeared to imply the plans could be watered down. Addressing MPs on Monday evening at a meeting of the parliamentary Labour party, Reeves urged her colleagues to get behind her: ‘There are more difficult decisions to come. I don’t say that because I relish it. I don’t – but it is a reflection of the inheritance that we face’.
However, the party’s wider backers are voicing their concerns over the move. Today union leaders gather in Brighton for the Trade Union Congress, their annual meet. Already Starmer is coming under pressure from the unions to act. Speaking in a morning broadcast round ahead of the conference, TUC general secretary Paul Nowak said he had ‘real concerns’ about the move: ‘I don’t want any pensioner going into the winter worried about putting the heating up’. Unite’s Sharon Graham – who is one of the more critical union leaders when it comes to Labour – has said Starmer ought to ‘do a U-turn’ as the policy is akin to ‘picking the pockets of pensioners’.
Given Starmer is due to appear at the conference on Tuesday, he will come face-to-face with critics of the policy. It means the row over the winter fuel allowance is turning into a test on both party management and how in hock Labour is to the unions, which of course help fund the party. When it comes to the size of rebellion expected, no one in government seriously thinks that Starmer could lose the vote. However, rebellions can still be damaging in their own right and the expectation is there could be up to 50 rebels.
There is widespread concern in the party about the move to cut the £300 payment for all pensions bar the poorest in a bid to make savings of over £1 billion. Labour MPs new to parliament have been taken aback by the level of criticism and communication from their constituents about it. There’s also a concern that this vote will not put the issue to bed – it will become more politically sensitive as winter approaches, particularly if there are pensioner deaths that are then linked to a lack of heating. Ed Balls, the former Labour politician and husband of the Home Secretary, said last week that Reeves needs an ‘escape route’. He told George Osborne on their Political Currency podcast: ‘I don’t think you can do a U-turn, but what they need is an escape route. However, this does not appear to be kite-flying – and instead to be a not entirely helpful intervention.
Last time Labour MPs rebelled – over the two child benefit cap – Starmer stripped the whip of all seven of the rebels. Starmer is yet to confirm whether this will be the case in this instance – losing 50 MPs would be a much bigger problem than just a handful. It means the government whips and the Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall have spent the past few days trying to dissuade potential rebels – the smaller the size of the rebellion, the more options they have in responding to it.
The comments from the trade union leaders today, however, show how the debate over winter fuel and other ‘difficult’ decisions expected on spending will run for some time to come. On Sunday, Keir Starmer warned that his party would have to be unpopular on a few things – such as the winter fuel payment. Were Reeves to significantly change course, it would be very damaging to her standing as Chancellor – suggesting she will not stick to decisions or provide stability and certainty.
What’s more, this is likely just the first in a series of difficult decisions – with next month’s ‘painful’ budget and then the comprehensive spending review due next spring. Both will see the Labour party have to take positions that in opposition they would have opposed. Starmer may say he’s fine being unpopular in the short term – he now needs to convince his new MPs that they should be too.
Hear more from Katy Balls on Coffee House Shots, The Spectator’s daily politics podcast:
Comments