So, today’s YouGov poll for the Sun records a 7 point post-conference boost for Labour. The Tories are now on 41 percent (down 3 from last month); Labour on 31 percent (up 7); and the Lib Dems on 16 percent (down 4). And there’s some good news for Brown personally, too. 39 percent of respondents want him to stay in No.10 – up 10 from last month.
It’s not entirely unexpected. Although I found it less than impressive, Brown’s speech did get generally good notices in the press. And pundits are already picking up on ‘the Sarah Effect’. The question now, though, is will the Labour gains stick? There are three major reasons suggesting that they won’t:
1) Some of the below-headline findings are less-than-favourable for Brown. Significantly, 60 percent of respondents think that Brown doesn’t understand what people are going through as the credit crunch takes hold.
2) The post-conference narrative hasn’t gone smoothly. To capitalise fully on his speech, Brown needed at least a few days without mishap or disquiet. He hasn’t had them. First there was the Ruth Kelly resignation, and then the news that Hank Paulson has turned down a meeting with our PM. Looking ahead, the narrative doesn’t look like it will improve any time soon. 6th November – the date of the Glenrothes by-election – looms large.
3) Electoral gravity pulls post-conference boosts down again. As the indispensable UK Polling Report and Political Betting point out, these post-conference boosts have a habit of falling back down again. Two years ago, Labour achieved another 7 percent leap in the aftermath of their party conference – putting them on level pegging with the Tories. By the end of October 2006, a 7 point Tory lead had been restored.
Even so, the Tories need to regard this as both a warning and an opportunity. The warning: those 20-point-plus poll leads are not set in stone, and they can’t risk complacency. The opportunity: there is a clear space for Cameron & Co. to show that they do understand what people are experiencing during the current economic downturn. On this, I agree with James that a plain-English explication of what’s going on and of what can be done to rectify things will go some way to achieving that. If the Tories can manage this in Birmingham, then they might get a poll boost of their own.
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