James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.
The atmosphere in Washington today is very different from it was four years ago. Then, everyone was on tenterhooks. Today, I haven’t spoken to a single person who thinks the result is in doubt (and that includes several McCain supporters). The conversation has moved on to Obama’s appointments, the future of the GOP and whether
The state polls today show what an advantage Obama has with a day to go. He leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two states that McCain has to win, by seven and ten points respectively. If it wasn’t for the memory of how wrong the polls were before New Hampshire, everyone would be calling this. (These
Here’s Americano’s guide what to watch for hour by hour on Tuesday night / Wednesday morning: 7 pm (Midnight UK Time) Polls close in six states. The battleground states of Virginia and Indiana won’t be called instantly but watch to see if Georgia and South Carolina are. If they’re not, that suggests that black turnout
Four years ago, Bush v. Kerry was essentially a foreign policy choice. If you knew someone’s view on the war, you probably knew which way they were going to vote. The final days of the campaign were dominated by arguments about who could best keep America safe. But now foreign policy has largely been bumped
The Sunday before a presidential election is always odd. The candidates are madly criss-crossing the country in one final effort, the press are trying to predict the result while covering themselves for all eventualities and the country is wondering who is still really undecided at this point. This morning’s papers and the Sunday shows are
I must admit that I left McCain’s rally in northern Virginia today more convinced that ever that this American hero will, sadly, lose on Tuesday. The bulk of McCain’s stump speech is dominated by an argument against redistribution. It is a classic right-left fight—and that’s what’s wrong with it. McCain is preaching to the choir
If this election was a speech-making contest it would have been over before it started. McCain is still a halting speaker with a tendency to step on his words. But he has a biography that resonates with his supporters. Warm-up speaker after speaker stressed how McCain had risked his life for his country, so the
Springfield, Virginia I’m at the final McCain rally in Virginia before polling day. The polls here have Obama ahead by a quite significant margin but the McCain campaign is hoping that its get out the vote operation and Democratic talk of cutting the defence budget by 25 percent can turn things around in this military-heavy
Washington, DC It says something about the mood in Washington that the chatter today have revolved around who might get what job in an Obama administration rather than which states the McCain campaign is closing in. With polling day only four days away, McCain doesn’t appear to be gaining in the swing states at the
The crucial number on Tuesday night is 270, that’s the number of electoral college votes needed to win the presidency. The Obama campaign has multiple options for getting to 270. Karl Rove’s map, which is based on public state by state polling, has Obama with 311 supposedly solid electoral college votes with another 70 too
Last night’s Barack Obama infomercial was a typically high-quality, well produced Obama product. There wasn’t much in it that was audacious but it sold the Obama message effectively and made him appear a safe choice. But this morning, spirits will have been raised in the McCain camp by a new poll which shows him within
The whole row over Russell Brand and Jonathan Ross’s disgusting prank calls continues to dominate the headlines this morning. That prime political opportunist Jack Straw has now waded into the matter, dropping heavy hints that Jonathan Ross should be fired. Brand and Ross have created a good moment to bury bad news–normally the news that
Hamish McRae is one of the few economic commentators to have come out of this crisis in credit. His column today on how to avoid the stagnation that has gripped the Japanese economy for the past twenty years is well worth reading. Here’s the key section but do read the whole piece: “During the early
The BBC is obviously getting rather nervous about where this whole affair could lead and has suspended Russell Brand and Jonathan Ross.
Mike Allen reports that in conversation with him “a top McCain adviser one-ups the priceless “diva” description [of Palin], calling her “a whack job.” Now, this is—to put it mildly—unhelpful. The idea of Palin ‘going rogue’ is catnip to the press and this quote will dominate at least the first news cycle of the day.
Russell Brand and Jonathan Ross deserve all the opprobrium being poured on them over their phone calls to Andrew Sachs boasting about Brand’s relationship with Sachs’ granddaughter. Their behaviour was as pathetic as it was boorish. But there is a broader point here, what on earth is the public service justification for Brand’s show? Brand
As soon as Nat Rothschild’s letter to The Times about George Osborne and Deripaska was published, it was obvious that it was only a matter of time before the Ashcroft issue got dragged into the spotlight again. Sure enough, today Rachel Sylvester devotes her column to Ashcroft’s tax and residency status. There is no getting
James Surowiecki has a good primer on why nothing worked to counter the flurry of selling in the markets. Here’s the key part of his argument, but do read the whole thing: “Rating agencies and Wall Street analysts are always with us. But the most destructive procyclical force in today’s market is relatively new—hedge funds.
Tim Montgomerie is running an excellent series on what the Tories should do next. One of his ideas is to move Eric Pickles to party chairman in an attempt to make the Tory top team more socially balanced. Certainly since David Davis’ resignation the Tory top team has appeared too posh. The problem has only
Over at Centre Right, Peter Cuthbertson has launched a new blog dedicated to tracking the accuracy of pundit predictions. This is a fun idea—albeit one that rather fills those of us who make predictions with dread—so if you see any good examples do email Peter.