James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.
Nashua, New Hampshire There’s little doubt that Obama is the candidate with the big ‘mo. Half an hour before his event was due to start here at Nashua North High School there was a mile and a half long queue of cars trying to get into the car park. The event eventually started an hour
Tonight, both the Democrats and the Republicans debate here in New Hampshire. The Democratic debate represents Hillary Clinton’s best chance to push back against the surging Barack Obama. Hillary has little choice but to make her move tonight, with the primary on Tuesday she has to change the story fast. If Obama wins on Tuesday,
Manchester, New Hampshire Mark Halperin over at The Page poses perhaps the most important question about the Republican race post-Iowa, “Do Huckabee and Giuliani rely on Romney to stop McCain (or do they realize that that might be a huge mistake?)?” Up until this point, all the Republican candidates had an interest in taking Romney
The US papers are stuffed with analysis of last night’s result. Of the stuff that I’ve seen waiting for my flight to New Hampshire, two pieces are absolute must reads: David Brooks on two ‘political earthquakes’ in The New York Times and EJ Dionne in The Washington Post on what the caucuses suggest about the
To understand how deep a hole Hillary Clinton is in following Barack Obama’s crushing victory in the Iowa caucuses, think what you would advise her to do. Going negative on Obama would likely rebound on the Clintons: the Democratic primary electorate do not want to see the first serious black contender for the White House
After Iowa, the Republican race remains remarkably fluid. Indeed, it is hard to identify anyone as the frontrunner. The result was clearly awful for Mitt Romney but Rudy Giuliani was also embarrassed, he only got 4% support comfortably behind Ron Paul, a candidate who Rudy has derided as a bit of a crank, who is at
Last night I headed to a caucus in Johnston, a suburb of Des Moines, and how Obama triumphed there was an extreme example of how he won Iowa. In 2004, 90 people attended the Democratic Caucus in this precinct: this time, 795 turned up. Overall, caucus turnout hit a record high on the Democratic side
Barack Obama must now be regarded as the favourite to win the Democratic nomination. He has absolutely thumped Hillary Clinton in Iowa, 38% to 29% with 99% of precincts reporting. Barring an unforeseen event, one has to assume that the momentum from this win will carry him to victory in New Hampshire five days from
Huckabee’s victory rally was buzzing; his supporters were revelling in having upset the apple cart. The most noticeable feature of Huckabee’s speech was how was how much of what he said could have been said by Obama. He talked about change and creating an America where people were more proud to be American than Democratic
Mitt Romney has just been humiliated here in Iowa. With only 15% of precincts reporting, the news channels called it for Huckabee. So, Romney despite outspending Huckabee by about 20 to 1, spending far more time in Iowa than any other candidate and re-branding himself politically has still being handily beaten—with 72% of the results
As we wait for the caucuses to get under way, the press are wondering who will leave the field after tonight’s results. This morning, The Politico reported that Senator turned actor Fred Thompson will drop out and endorse John McCain if he doesn’t finish third tonight. (The Thompson campaign has denied the report but Thompson
One of the many quirks of the Democrat’s Iowa Caucus is that if your candidate gets less than 15% support, you can choose to shift your support to another candidate. The conventional wisdom is that this isn’t good for Hillary who is effectively the incumbent in this race and so Edwards and Obama are expected
It looks increasingly like Hillary’s nightmare Iowa scenario is about to become true. So, the question is how does she come back? The brutal truth is that there is no easy solution to her troubles. In recent weeks, she has tried to showcase the softer side of her personality—something that her campaign should have done
“I think Brown’s character, specifically the lack of charisma or warmth will prevent him being able to bring it back. When problems hit Brown will never be able get away with a winning smile and a “I’m a pretty straight sort of guy” or “well, John is John”, he can’t charm he was out of
One of the odd things about the Iowa caucuses is that because they do not start until 6:30PM there are no early indications on turnout or anything else. But we can read the tea-leaves. Judging from the mood of the various campaigns, it is the Obama and Huckabee campaigns who are most confident. Obama and
The difference in enthusiasm and size of crowds between the Barack Obama and Mitt Romney rallies was stark. Obama was clearly exhausted at his eve of caucus rally in Des Moines, is voice was hoarse and many of his best lines were barely audible but still his crowd was far larger and more enthusiastic than
Mitt Romney’s final event before the Iowa caucus was surprisingly downbeat affair. The crowd was not huge—about 625 to 650 people according to the Romney camp—and Romney was in reflective rather than rousing mood peppering his speech with phrases such as “I don’t know what happens to us down the road” and “we’re going to
Tonight, I’m planning to go and see Mitt Romney and Barack Obama’s big pre-caucus rallies but before that I’m going to pop in on a Ron Paul event. Paul is running for the Republican nomination as an anti-war, libertarian. He has garnered an unbelievably devoted following and has been raising money hand over fist–$20 million
Des Moines, Iowa Quite remarkably on the eve of the Iowa caucuses both the Democratic and Republican races are far too close to call. The determining factor on both sides will be turnout. Obama is hoping to bring independents, disgruntled Republicans and first time caucus goers into the process and if he can succeed in
Des Moines, Iowa Barack Obama’s closing video is radically different from Hillary’s talk to camera. Obama’s ad-men have gone for essentially a collection of his greatest hits starting with that speech to the 2004 Democratic convention which started it all. The message is light on policy and heavy on personality and Obama’s claims to be