As the local election results trickle in, Labour has plenty to shout about when it comes to London. The party has taken Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet from the Tories, in a blow to the Conservatives. Given these are high-profile victories – Wandsworth was Thatcher’s favourite council and Westminster has never been Labour – it’s understandable that the results are leading the news. But outside of London, with 73 out of 146 councils counted, Labour is actually looking at a net loss of seats (down six) with not much signs of winning back the ‘red wall’. So what’s the wider picture for Starmer?
There’s no disputing that the Tories have had a tough night (that’s likely to get worse in the coming hours) but the question is how far Labour is able to benefit – and pick up what the Tories lose. Given partygate and the cost of living crisis, there were low expectations. But here’s the picture in London vs the rest of England:
The Tories have managed to hold in many parts of the so-called Red Wall
While Starmer has had some victories outside the M25 – with Labour winning Cumberland council, despite it being home to three Tory MPs – the Tories have managed to hold in many parts of the so-called Red Wall. The party has also picked up seats in bellwether places such as Nuneaton and Hartlepool.
Summing up Labour’s position, polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice says that, on the results so far, it does not indicate a party on course for winning a majority:
‘This is certainly not a local election performance that in any sense indicates a party that is on course for winning a general election with an overall majority. Indeed I’m not sure whether we could even say that at this point it’s guaranteed or necessarily on course even to be the largest party in the next parliament.’
As Boris Johnson braces for a backlash from Tory MPs who have lost councillors overnight, one of the areas where aides are taking comfort is that the results raise plenty of questions for Starmer too.
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