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Keir Starmer said he was travelling to Cop 29 in Baku intending to “lead the world on climate change”. But it must surely be obvious that he is, instead, barking at a world that is heading in the opposite direction. Last year’s grand talk about “phasing down” fossil fuels at Cop 28 notwithstanding, today’s Global Carbon Budget Report forecasts that global carbon emissions will hit another record high in 2024, reaching 41.6 billion tonnes, up from 40.6 billion tonnes in 2023. The report calls this “marginal”, but it’s actually a 2.5 per cent increase, including all carbon emissions from industry and land use, as well as fossil fuel burning. How

For the first time ever there are seven million migrant workers in Britain’s job market. Figures released by the ONS this morning show that more than one in five jobs in Britain is now filled by someone born overseas – despite a fall in EU workers since Brexit. Overall, that’s an increase of 183,000 – equivalent to a town the size of Warrington or a city the size of Southend – since the election, and up over one million since the first lockdown. The rest of this morning’s ONS release suggest the jobs market could be about to face a slowdown. The ONS stats show employers reducing hiring. Above inflation pay

The timing couldn’t have been worse. Under leaden November skies, came news of what many have suspected: energy rationing for British households could be officially on the cards. The NESO-Miliband plan for a low-carbon future is going to involve a lot more than just waiting a while for a cup of tea The bearer of these tidings is the National Energy System Operator (NESO), the UK’s new energy systems operator which began work last month. NESO’s first main act has been to publish a report arguing that ‘demand side flexibility’ – which appears to be a euphemism for rationing at peak hours – is vital if the country is to make the

The Bank of England has announced its rate cut of 0.25 percentage points, reducing the base rate from 5 per cent to 4.75 per cent. The decision, voted 8-1 by the Monetary Policy Committee, is the second rate cut to be announced by Threadneedle Street since the inflation crisis began. Markets were expecting a rate cut today, after the Bank held rates in September. The BoE has been clear that bringing down the base rate will be a slow and steady process, as the Committee continues to assess the impact of lower rates on the economy and potential inflationary effects. This ‘gradual approach’ was reconfirmed today in the MPC’s minutes,

Six days on from the Budget, and things don’t look any better for Rachel Reeves’s claim that her Budget won’t negatively affect working people. Today and tomorrow, it is the turn of the Commons Treasury Select Committee to pick through the wreckage. What have we learned so far? David Miles from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) doubled down on the effect of the rise in employers’ National Insurance (NI). The OBR has already estimated that three-quarters of the effect will be on wages – thereby contradicting Reeves’s claim that working people will not suffer from the rise. Miles went further, saying that many economists would argue that 100 per

Vertrauen ist gut, Kontrolle ist besser – trust is good, control is better – is a popular German saying. It’s also the state’s motto for overseeing Europe’s biggest economy, which is now being run into the ground. Germany’s economy is officially expected to shrink in 2024 for the second year in a row. Berlin’s Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Greens Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck, who are fighting for their political lives as their coalition crumbles around them, are to blame. Only one German sector is growing: the state. Government consumption grew by 2.8 per cent from mid-2023 to mid-2024. Dealing with bureaucracy costs German business €67 billion (£55 billion)

Credit to Rachel Reeves: while some chancellors opt to take part in the Sunday shows ahead of a fiscal event, the Chancellor has decided to do the media round the Sunday after her first Budget. Rather than spending the entire interview refusing to say what will be announced in the week ahead (the information is considered to be market-sensitive), she is instead having to answer difficult questions about what she announced on Wednesday. It wasn’t an easy morning, as Labour’s Budget narrative continues to get tested to breaking point. Reeves was played a video on Sky News this morning of her comments back in June, when she said no tax increases would

It was the absence of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s judgment that was blamed for the bond market crisis after Liz Truss’s mini-Budget. Truss and her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng had rushed to enact their vision for a fast-growing economy without waiting for the wisdom of the government’s official fiscal watchdog. For Truss, the OBR is just another part of the establishment that was out to get her. But then, can the OBR be entirely trusted anyway? It seems that it has created a black hole of its own making – by overstating Public Sector Net Financial Liabilities (PSNFL). PSNFL is the measure that Rachel Reeves has chosen to use for

The more investors dig into Labour’s first Budget, the less they seem to like it. After the Office for Budget Responsibility published its assessment of the Chancellor’s measures yesterday afternoon, some immediate (and expected) volatility set in. But rather than settling down, market jitters seem to have worsened today, as a gilt sell-off saw government borrowing costs hit their highest level in 2024 this afternoon, with the 10-year gilt yield reaching 4.52 per cent and the five-year gilt yield reaching 4.41 per cent. So far the situation is manageable for the government – but is a strong indication that the markets are not quite as on-side with their plans for