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The economy would crash, the markets would be in open revolt, and he would swiftly be evicted from office by the IMF, and replaced by some ‘grown-ups’. When Argentina elected its chainsaw-wielding, libertarian President Javier Milei a year ago, the economic and political establishment confidently predicted he would only last a few weeks. And yet, not only has Milei managed to stay in power, all the evidence suggests that he is turning Argentina around. The real question now is this? Will a stagnant and moribund Europe pay attention? With inflation running at 25 per cent a month, with the largest IMF loan in history to pay back, and with the

Another day, another flurry of bad news on the fallout from October’s Budget. The BDO Monthly Business Trends indices – which pull together the results of all the main UK business surveys – show that confidence has fallen to the lowest level in almost two years, with output and employment down, and only inflation up. Meanwhile, KPMG and REC have published their UK Report on Jobs, which reveals a sharp fall in permanent recruitment in November. It seems many firms are reassessing their ‘staffing needs’ amid reports of a growing number of redundancies. It is a reminder that Labour’s first Budget was certainly grim. But just as the new government

The very wicked French novelist Michel Houellebecq recently asked: “It should be strange for the British: they voted for Brexit to have no more immigrants and you have more?” Yes Michel, it is strange – and not just for Britain. Migration to the western world has reached record levels, despite popular blowback in nearly every country. Migration demonstrably lowered wages for native workers Even excluding refugees (from Ukraine and elsewhere), permanent migration to the OECD hit a new high in 2023. Over a third of OECD countries registered their highest levels ever, particularly the United Kingdom, but also Canada and France. The unlikely key to this story isn’t politicians but economists. There

In the weeks since Rachel Reeves’s Budget and its shock attack on agricultural property relief, we’ve seen various armchair pundits pontificate on farmers’ lives – a source of mounting exasperation for farmers themselves. The peak of pundit-on-ploughman contempt came, unsurprisingly, from LBC’s James O’Brien First, there have been the panicky announcements from the government – that the threshold for agricultural tax relief is £1 million, or that no, actually, it’s £3 million if you’re under 5’8” and are married to a woman called Susan or…“Ooh, look over there! A bird!”’ We’ve had Owen Jones on Jeremy Vine declare that farmers were overreacting due to ‘inflammatory’ rhetoric from the media, that

Is the OECD doing Labour’s PR for it? I ask only because of its bullish prediction for UK economic growth in its latest economic outlook, published this morning, and the contrast with what it has been saying about Britain over the past few years. An economy that was supposed to be hammered by Brexit has suddenly been transformed into one of which Rachel Reeves is able to say: ‘The OECD upgrade will mean the UK is the fastest growing European economy in the G7 over the next few years.’ The OECD has pencilled in growth of 0.9 per cent in 2024, followed by 1.7 per cent in 2025 and 1.3

Russia’s ruble is in trouble. The currency has plunged to its lowest rate against the dollar since the weeks after the outbreak of war against Ukraine. On Wednesday, the ruble hit 110 against the dollar for the first time since 16 March 2022. The currency has recovered slightly, to 108 against the dollar this morning, but in Moscow people are worried. There are no good remedies for the Russian economy’s malaise apart from ending the war Russians who lived through the tumultuous years after the collapse of the Soviet Union know all about the dangers of currency devaluation. While, clearly, things aren’t as bad as they were in the 1990s,

For the first time ever, France’s borrowing costs have risen above those of Greece. As of today, the bond markets have decided that French debt is a riskier bet than Greece, the country that 15 years ago almost crashed the entire euro-zone with its fiscal extravagance and irresponsibility. True, to some degree that reflects an improvement in Greece’s position, as well as the decline of France’s. Yet the harsh reality is this: France is in a sorry state and president Emmanuel Macron will struggle to patch things up. The bond markets have decided that French debt is a riskier bet than Greece This moment of crisis was bound to happen

Labour talks of having the ‘bold ambition of an 80 per cent employment rate’. But who should they target to get there? The government published its white paper this week on ‘getting Britain working’ and tackling the growing health and disability benefits bill, which is forecast to hit £120 billion.  Figures slipped out by the Office for National Statistics today give more insight on which groups could perhaps be better targeted. These figures split out employment rates by parental status, and show that already more than 80 per cent of married (or cohabiting) mothers and 93 per cent of married (or cohabiting) fathers with dependent children are working. This doesn’t leave a

It turns out it wasn’t just China after all. Mexico, and indeed Canada, are just as much in the firing line. President-Elect Trump announced last night that he will impose an immediate 25 per cent tariff on imports from both of the US’s two largest land neighbours, threatening huge disruption to their economies. Trump may think he is being clever by weaponising access to the American market, and in the short-term he may even by right. The trouble is, he is going to break the global trading system – and it will be very hard to put back together afterwards.  This is a recipe for constant market chaos It is

Rachel Reeves was probably expecting to be cheered for restoring ‘stability’, for rebooting ‘growth’ and crafting a British version of Bidenomics to create ‘the industries of the future’. Instead, the Chancellor’s ‘fireside chat’ at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) conference today is likely to be rather uncomfortable. There probably won’t be any heckling, walk-outs, boos and cat-calls. Yet the business world has made it all-too-clear that Reeves’s Budget will hit both jobs and growth hard. Reeves is going to get a rough ride this afternoon – and deservedly so. Labour’s relationship with business is now broken beyond repair The CBI made it clear this morning what it thinks of

Some lesbian and gay campaigners might have you believe that life is hard for gay people. Of course, for many it is. But my experience of being a lesbian is that it is mostly a privilege rather than an oppression. Lesbians can avoid the multiple disadvantages of navigating relationships with men, some of whom have absorbed messages of how they are superior to women. There’s another perk, too: what the Financial Times calls the ‘lesbian pay premium’. An analysis of studies from 1991 to 2018 found that lesbians typically earn 7 per cent more than their heterosexual counterparts. The LGBTQ umbrella term can be suffocating for lesbians That life is

Paul Samuelson, the famous American economist and author of the bestselling textbook Economics, gave the now quaintly old-fashioned example of the pitfalls in GDP accounting by pointing out that if a man married his maid, GDP would fall. The example was dropped after the third edition. A more relevant example today would be if a middle aged person stops working full-time to look after an elderly relative at home. The GDP economy loses part of the contribution of the middle aged person plus the demand of the elderly person for care in a private care home. Yet in most cases that elderly person is much happier staying in their own

It may well be the biggest and most significant choice the Starmer administration will have to take. If Donald Trump decides to impose huge tariffs on China, potentially sparking a global trade war, the UK will have to decide whether it backs America, or tries to steer a softer path with the European Union. All the indications are that it will choose Europe. The trouble is, that will prove a huge mistake – the British economy is very different from the rest of Europe, and we will be thrown overboard as soon as it is convenient.  The contrast has ground to a halt, and it makes little sense to tie

Tens of thousands of farmers will descend on Westminster in their tractors tomorrow to protest at inheritance tax changes that could see them pay death duties when they hand down their farms. The government doesn’t understand the fuss. It says they are just targeting wealthy land buyers trying to dodge tax. Meanwhile the farmers argue their way of life risks being wiped out. Who’s right? Two in five farmers are over the age of 60, so it’s not impossible the tax ends up having to be paid soon The government says the changes ‘are expected to affect the wealthiest 500 estates each year with smaller farms not affected’ – and

Business taxes are soaring. Employment rights have been massively extended, the trade unions are getting more powers, companies are too dependent on low-skilled immigrants, and the planning system still makes it impossible to build anything. There are plenty of challenges facing the British economy that the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey could have drawn attention to in his Mansion House speech last night. And yet, instead he decided to reopen the Brexit debate. That was surely a mistake. There are two big problems with Bailey’s decision to reopen that can of worms Addressing the City alongside the Chancellor Rachel Reeves on Thursday, Bailey argued that relations with