Money

Kate Andrews

Can Trump defend his tariff calculations?

When President Trump held up an easel in the White House Rose Garden illustrating each country’s ‘tariffs charged to the USA’ and the new ‘U.S.A. discounted reciprocal tariffs’, there appeared to be some small print underneath the first column, barely readable. Then printed copies started to circulate the garden. Underneath the column showing each country’s ‘tariffs charged’, it read: ‘including currency manipulation and trade barriers’.  It was clear that the figures published by the Trump Administration were their interpretation of tariff calculations. It was also immediately clear that some countries were going to dispute the figures. But exactly what had been calculated was not immediately obvious. The picture is still hazy

Kate Andrews

Trump has bet the house on tariffs

‘My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day’, Donald Trump told the audience that had gathered in the Rose Garden for his official signing of his executive order to put import levies on goods imported to the United States from around the world. There was no hesitation, there were no caveats: only utter enthusiasm from both the President and almost his whole cabinet, who cheered Trump on as he declared 2 April ‘the day America’s destiny was reclaimed’. Vice President J.D. Vance, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Homeland Security Kirsti Noem and House Speaker Mike Johnson were just some of the attendees, who all

Ross Clark

Labour’s welfare crackdown is a sham

You can already sense Rachel Reeves’s spin machine whirring into action. It was Donald Trump wot ruined my careful book-keeping, the Chancellor will tell us as once again her fiscal headroom disappears and she ends up banging her scalp painfully on the ceiling. But could it be unrealistic expectations for her welfare reforms which prove her undoing? Tucked away in the government’s own figures is the revelation that Labour’s welfare shake-up could result in 400,000 more people signed off unfit for any work. Britain’s workshy culture has received another boost The contents of the impact assessment on her Spring Statement, published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) last week,

Trump’s tariff plan has been tried before. It failed

Donald Trump thinks ‘tariff’ is the ‘most beautiful word in the dictionary’. Today is ‘Liberation Day’, and the US president is holding true to his campaign trail promise to impose tariffs on imports. Cars, steel and aluminium are expected to be hit with levies of up to 25 per cent. A 10 to 20 per cent universal tariff on all goods imported into the United States is also said to be on the cards. Trump isn’t the first to think tariffs are a secret weapon. A century ago, the British Conservatives’ were obsessed by tariffs. Like Trump, they saw them as an ideal tool to promote industrial revival and lower taxes.

Trump’s tariffs could damage the dollar

Donald Trump says his tariffs are about liberation. But his aggressive turn toward protectionism may signal the beginning of a shift away from the foundations that have upheld American prosperity for decades. The US dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency has long enabled the United States to consume far more than it produces, to run massive deficits without consequence, and to project unparalleled geopolitical power. Trump’s decision to slap tariffs of up to 25 per cent on imports could put that all at risk. When French president Valery Giscard d’Estaing referred to the United States’ ‘privilège exorbitant‘ he was not referring to America’s central position in the post-WW2 world

The minimum wage is too high

Council tax is going up. Train fares are rising. Broadband will cost more, and so will electricity and water. April opens with a blizzard of price rises that will make it far harder for everyone to make ends meet, especially if they are on a low income. The one compensation is that the minimum wage is going up as well. There is just one catch, however. The UK now has one of the highest minimum wages in the world – and very soon it is going to become painfully clear it will start costing jobs. It is the one statistic the government will be boasting about on Tuesday. The National Living

Ross Clark

There’ll be no liberty on Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’

Beware the words ‘liberty’ and ‘liberation.’ There are no end of evils committed in their names. Wednesday, according to Donald Trump, will be America’s Liberation Day, as citizens are freed from the yoke of free-ish trade. That is the day that importers who have been showering US consumers with cheap goods will be slapped with punitive tariffs. So far, the only thing that US consumers appear to have been liberated from is their money. Stock markets in the US and around the world have suffered a slide as markets digest the implications. They do not like what they foresee, which is the prospect of the golden years of globalisation going

Michael Simmons

Welcome to Terrible Tuesday

Britain’s real economic pain starts today. Overnight, the cost of living has jumped once again: energy, water, broadband, public transport, TV licences – all up. So too are council tax bills, capital gains, and vehicle taxes. And that’s before we even get to the slow stealth march of fiscal drag. Last week, the Office for Budget Responsibility warned that inflation will hover close to 4 per cent this year – driven by higher food and energy prices – and won’t fall back to the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target until 2027. One of the biggest culprits? Energy. Ofgem’s latest price cap hike – up 6.4 per cent –

Michael Simmons

Can we trust our economic data anymore?

Britain’s economic outlook may have been skewed by bad data – and it could be costing billions. Wage data pored over by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to be revised in the coming weeks – and the implications could be serious. The nine economists who decide the country’s interest rates – currently at 4.5 per cent – have consistently said they want to see pay rises slow before they can be sure that the inflationary shock brought about by Covid has worked its way out of the system fully. But wage growth remains strong. Private sector wages have gone from below 5 per cent in

MPs deserve more than a £2,500 pay rise

It looks set to be a happy April for MPs who are in line for a 2.8 per cent pay rise, lifting their salaries to £93,904. Your reaction to that figure likely depends on how much you earn. So does mine – and since I’m about to argue that MPs are underpaid, it’s only fair I give a sense of my own finances. I’ll stay schtum about my books and biotech startup, but I’ll admit – no boasting intended – that this piece will net me, after tax, somewhere in the mid to high two figures. Can it be right that we pay our MPs significantly less than hospital consultants? As

Give holiday home owners a break

If you have had your eye on a bungalow along the Devon coast, a cottage in the New Forest, or a tastefully painted terrace in one of the sea-facing villages in Norfolk, this could be your moment. Many holiday home owners are choosing to sell up to avoid a hike on council taxes. From next week, local authorities will be allowed to charge double the normal rate for second home owners. Average bills are set to rise from £2,280 to £4,560. This crackdown is likely to be popular. After all, who has sympathy with those who own two homes, when many young people are struggling to get on to the

The flight of the millionaires will impoverish Britain

Steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal is considering leaving the UK because of the Labour government’s abolition of the ‘non-dom’ tax regime. This confirms that Keir Starmer’s politics of envy is successfully destroying the British economy. Mittal would join tens of thousands of millionaires and billionaires – British and foreign – who have already abandoned Britain to avoid paying even more tax: all of them ranked among the 1 per cent of British residents, contributing 29 per cent of all the taxes raised by HMRC. These tax exiles had been willing to pay fair taxes, but many baulked at Starmer’s decision not only to tax their offshore income but also their foreign-based

Katy Balls

Can Reeves avoid further tax rises?

Rachel Reeves wakes to a swathe of tricky front pages this morning after the Spring Statement in which the Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) slashed next year’s growth forecasts. The Chancellor also announced extra welfare cuts in order to meet her fiscal rules. The verdict on the statement isn’t exactly positive, with Reeves facing criticism from both left and right. The Daily Mail brands Reeves ‘deluded’ and the Daily Telegraph warns of ‘five years of record taxes’. The Guardian splashes with ‘Reeves accused of balancing books at expense of the poor’ while the Financial Times says ‘Tax rise fears cloud Reeves’s fiscal fix’. Reeves could take some small comfort from the

Michael Simmons

The five bombshells in the OBR’s economic outlook

There is perhaps no document more useful for understanding the state of the nation than the Office for Budget Responsibility’s ‘Economic and Fiscal Outlook’. The 180-page document, released as soon as the Chancellor sits down after a Budget or financial statement, can not only seal the fate of a government but also tell us where the country is heading. Today was no exception. The OBR’s outlook was filled with bombshell after bombshell. Here are five of the most shocking findings in the report: 1. The OBR’s housing forecasts suggest Labour is nowhere near to achieving its target of building 1.5 million new homes in this parliament – which Rachel Reeves already

Isabel Hardman

Rachel Reeves’s non-Budget is very bad news

Rachel Reeves framed her Spring Statement around the insistence that Labour’s Plan for Change was already working, which meant that any changes she was having to make today had to be framed as small ‘adjustments’, rather than the sort of change of course that would allow the Conservatives to claim she was delivering an ‘emergency budget’.  She insisted that she was sticking to only one fiscal event a year, but the Chancellor did have to make a number of admissions in today’s speech, chief among them that the OBR had cut its growth forecast for the year from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. She said she was ‘not

Ross Clark

Falling inflation may have rescued Rachel Reeves

Clothing retailers have saved Rachel Reeves from having to go naked into the debating chamber. As the Chancellor rises to deliver her Spring Statement today, she will have the comfort of knowing that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) has fallen from 3.0 per cent to 2.8 per cent – and unexpectedly at that. The main reason is that clothing retailers cut their prices by 0.3 per cent in February – against a 2.1 per cent rise in February 2024. The fall will help ease pressure on households, but nothing like as much as it will ease pressure on Reeves herself. A revival of the cost-of-living crisis is the last thing

Michael Simmons

Is Reeves brave enough to give the economy the medicine it needs?

Rachel Reeves has wanted to downplay the significance of the Spring Statement this afternoon. But with every leaked proposal and briefing, the statement feels increasingly like a full-blown Budget. Soaring borrowing costs, and a growth forecast set to be slashed in half, have wiped out the Chancellor’s £10 billion headroom against her ‘ironclad’ fiscal rules. Reeves’s statement could now include civil service reforms, NHS productivity measures and an ‘austerity-lite’ stance on future spending. There will be no major tax decisions, barring a possible extension to fiscal drag. But today’s announcement is a crucial one for the Chancellor. Reeves’s didn’t expect the outlook for Britain’s economy to be so bleak. Yet

Ross Clark

Rachel Reeves’s Spring Statement looks like a missed opportunity

The Spring Statement was supposed to be a fiscal non-event, but instead, it is shaping up to be a mini-Budget. We have been primed, however, to expect only spending cuts – not tax rises (and presumably not tax cuts either). So what can we expect? So far, Liz Kendall has announced changes to welfare benefits that are supposed to save £5 billion a year by 2029–30, the last – partial – financial year of this parliament. In addition, it has been mooted that reforms to government administration – perhaps meaning up to 50,000 job losses in the civil service – will save £2 billion by the same year. Why the